恶人谷

[大红脸浪漫抒情风格]
我有一个梦想... 在四十岁以前，靠一身精湛的赌术，在赌林大会的外围赛里宝刀出鞘，技压群雄，夺得一张前往拉斯维加斯世界扑克系列大赛主决赛的入场卷 .....如果到了四十岁还没有实现这个梦想，那不要紧，还有一个备胎梦想.......就是自己掏一万块钱,去参加决赛...一鸣惊人......如果没有一鸣惊人....也不要紧，更后备的梦想....就是重在参与....
[/大红脸浪漫抒情风格]

[纽约客有话不好好说风格]
没有比WSOP 更浪漫嬉皮的节日盛会，兼具Woodstock, 彩票，数学比赛和万圣节的迷人之处。奥运会已经完全被金钱控制，蜕变为职业运动员的名利场，体育赌博集团对裁判扮演魔鬼的剧院，化学家的新药实验室。而体育精神或者能够在这个完全金钱为目的的罪恶场所发扬广大。有人会争论，不流汗的游戏也能算作体育？可是难道赌博不比象棋更考验人的智慧，忍耐，勇气和精神？诚然，老派守旧的职业选手会抱怨现代媒体的侵入已经污染了扑克的计算性，把wsop 变成无知新手买彩票(好昂贵的彩票！)的游戏。他们挟带扑克上帝特地用来引人上瘾的新手好运，乱哄哄一拥而上，凭得一身剐，敢把皇帝拉下马，车轮混战中难免砍伤高手。二十年前，Johnny Chan 凭高超牌技和一点运气，背对背蝉联冠军的时代是永远过去了！现在的冠军，需要高超运气和....好吧，中等牌技。等等，Johnny Chan 怎么会家喻户晓？噢，还是因为那部著名的电影，<The Rounders>. 败也箫何，成也箫何。Johnny Chan 只击败了一百六十七个对手，赢得七十万美金。今年，八千七百七十三人参加了比赛，第一名jamie gold 赢得了一千二百万美金.当被问及“你怎么开始玩扑克？”不少选手的回答是：“噢在我看了<The Rounders> 之后。”Johnny Chan 大可不必苦涩，Jamie Gold 会再加上一句：“得到Johnny Chan 做导师使我受益匪浅。”深具讽刺意味的是，如果要列举扑克发展上最重要的三个因素，倒轮不上他，或任何一个真正的高手。这三个因素应该是：针孔摄像机；互联网；Chris Moneymaker.

针孔摄像机？是的。如果你去过任何一场扑克比赛就知道，旁观扑克比赛，最热情的牌迷也会感到厌倦不耐。不象任何其他体育比赛，进程一目了然，扑克比赛中，大部分时间，牌桌上是空的，或者只有三张空开牌，选手们对着自己手里的两张底牌和一堆筹码，凝眉端坐，苦思冥想，企图衡量计算出最佳对策，同时要极力面无表情，以免被对手看出端倪。自从有人发明了在牌桌边上安装针孔摄像机，观众可以看到每个选手的底牌，扑克比赛才变得生动有趣起来，也开始被各个体育台大规模转播。更重要的是，因为知道对方的底牌，观众常自觉比最高明的选手更高明，不时扼腕叹息：我就不会这样做。观看之余，不免技痒。就这样，互联网在稻糠田遭灾后，发现了新的处女地。
在线上玩牌有很多好处，头一条当然是不局限于地域。无须专门开车去赌场，任何人都可以在晚饭后打开电脑玩上半个钟头---或者一个通宵，七天七夜。本来只在周末和朋友玩上一盘，现在发现随时随地有人奉陪。没钱的可以玩免费或五分一毛的小游戏，有钱的可以玩五百一千的桌子，真正各取所需，各得其所。2003 年的冠军Chris Moneymaker , 只是偶然参加网上八十块报名费的外围赛，一路上升最终赢得三百万奖金。当人们从电视目击这个新时代的灰姑娘诞生，线上比赛大为繁荣，相应的外围赛也成倍增加，2004 年wsop 的参赛人数翻了三翻。
Chris Moneymaker 是个有趣的人物。他是个来自田纳西的年轻会计师，超重，毫无魅力可言。玩的不错，但绝对算不上一流高手。事实上，在飞上枝头变凤凰之前，他的生活不但平凡，而且一团糟。虽然是个会计，并不善理财，又赶上被裁员，接近破产边缘。即使如此，仍然沉迷于线上赌博，把刚出生不久的孩子扔给妻子照料。他能胜出，持续的好运气占了大半。所犯的每一个错误，仿佛都得到扑克上帝的奖励，小机率转败为胜。昙花一现之后，他也没有更多的成功，以后几年都早早出局。最近看见他出演大量庸俗广告，极力吹嘘2003 年wsop 冠军这唯一荣誉，想来很缺钱用。自传中他自称胜利当晚就跟狐朋狗友跑到脱衣舞俱乐部狂喝狂舞，账单高达两万元。其实两百五十万，也不是那么禁花。如果改天传来他破产的新闻，我一点也不会奇怪。但是正因为他是如此业余普通，才能大大激发中西部红脖子们的带入感，扑克带来艳魅的幻想，仿佛触手可及--通过桌头的鼠标。

今年的冠军是Jamie Gold, 先声夺人，观众还没看到比赛(ESPN 并非同期转播，而是挑选精华为十集播出)，已经看到了法律诉讼。是的，这是美国，一切小事都有律师为你无事生非，更何况涉及六百万奖金。一位Crispin Leyser 先生，声称Gold 曾许诺和他对分奖金，有Gold 的留言录音为证。新闻报导语焉不详，这一场是非如何了局，我们还得且看下会分解。教训是什么？首先，如果你不打算实践诺言，切勿随便许诺。其次，如果有人对你许诺，口说无凭，最好白字黑字。以人性赌博，危险越大于金钱。

此篇大红脸风格显著，鉴定完毕

忿忿的说，大红脸有什么不好？我喜欢大红脸和省略号……

别生气，我也喜欢大红脸的，就是鉴定一下而已

我改...我改还不行嘛？

风格要统一，统一

大红脸知不知道这里有一群中青少年粉丝啊（我全面吧），如果知道了会写篇什么出来，想想就好玩

他会来卖书？
其实我不是大红脸的粉丝(挖塞，粉丝一个半大孩子，咱丢不起这人)。我看了他的书以后，觉得笑料重复的太多。当然还是挺逗的。

谷里有少年吗？这不好，恶人谷儿童不宜。

他会来卖书？

也许他会被他的风格吸引了一群中年妇女这个事实给吓坏了。

Why should he care if he's bent?

He is not gay! He has a crush on Xu Jin Lei.
BTW, talking about closet gay and oversenstive gaydar, Jun, have you ever thought Arafat might be gay? I bet your gaydar missed this one!

JING

火星狗 wrote:谷里有少年吗？这不好，恶人谷儿童不宜。

不是有少女吗？

Exactly, me thinks he doth protest too much.

I don't know anything about Arafat and have never read any high-brow middle-east political books. How would I have a clue?

Hey! Here's an answer to the question why aren't you married -- "I won't marry until all Americans who want to marry can!"

我想到个更大义凛然的，“不到世界和平的那一天，我是不会结婚的！”

我把少女这茬给忘了。

The highbrow middle-east political book doesn't say anything about his homosexuality But when I was reading wikipedia I found some juicy details Although in the Arab world, bisexuality is not considered big deal as long as you don't declare it.

小k，那天我无聊，在WIKI看Anderson Cooper的条目，里面说他大学暑假在CIA当过intern，然后隔天看见某个网站揭露---CNN台主持人AC是CIA安插在媒体的mole！

好一头身娇肉贵的mole

这个mole 算是混出来，变成美人痣了！ --- 可以拍本无间道！

I was listening to NPR News this morning when the interviewee talked about how she wrote the screen play for When Harry met Sally. She said the movie was mainly conversation. It is so New York. Everyone is talking all the time, at work, at transportation, on a cell phone in a restaraunt...

俺前天在ATL捡了本杂志看，说的便是closet 的好莱坞人们。这安某便在第一行第二个。其他的还有老调常谈的汤姆克鲁斯了，那个油脂男主角了（叫啥来着？）

John Travolta, also a member of scientology.

The writer of When Harry Met Sally is Nora Ephron. I saw her at Politics and Prose 2 weeks ago. She's going around promoting her new book these days.

You want to have lunch with her? She is going to make appearance in the upcoming New Yorker Festival, doing a cooking/talking session. As described in the program, she will "cook 3 dishes, each representing a distinct phase in her life". I was actually tempted after Jun's 8g about her...but I figured, Jun saw her for free, why should I pay $75... Well it is sold out anyway She is also doing a book signing.

谁能来解解惑，这个帖子进出几次我还是没看懂谁是大红脸啊

小K, 原来我和你在这赌上还真是臭味相投啊. 你真的去赌过外围赛吗?湾区好象５０块就能参加一些比赛了，　当然不是通向拉斯维加斯的比赛了．　

[quote="

"不流汗的游戏也能算作体育？", 有人会争论。
酱紫就更贴近该风格了。

或者，“不流汗的游戏”，有人会争论，“也能算作体育？”

酱紫也行。

写完啦！

我深刻的总结道：这个东西８４看运气，２４看姓！你看，一个姓moneymaker－－－赚钱人，一个姓gold－－－金，杰出人士chan还占了美国人赚到钱象声词半截。

所以，在上赌桌之前广大人民群众需要反躬自省，４会赢钱姓吗？

那我要取个艺名叫一对尖！

其实两百五十万，也不是那么禁花。

Tax alone bites off half of it.

We all love a Cinderella story, but the reality is that the poorer you were before you hit the jackpot, the less you are prepared to handle the money.

I think a while ago I posted a Washington Post report (very long) about the West Virginia man who won $200 million + lottery and how terribly it worked out for the whole town and his family (his granddaughter and a young man died of a drug overdose).

他自称胜利当晚就跟狐朋狗友跑到脱衣舞俱乐部狂喝狂舞，账单高达两万元。

大部分人会那样做吗？性格决定命运……

Knowing wrote:那我要取个艺名叫一对尖！

why not 4 A?

Chris Moneymaker is so typical Midwest America When I was reading his bio, written by himself and a ghost writer so it definitely did not mean to make him look bad, I saw redlights all over the place. They were a young couple, 2 whitecollar workers with decent income (around 60k together?). Yet, they bought house they could not quite afford, deep in creditcard debt, 2 new cars, and he had a gambling problem. When he was layed off at work, they were on the edge of declaring bankruptcy, but managed to trade one new car in for an used one and borrowed some money from parents to pay off creditcard debt. Even so he could not stop gambling. I was thinking Gee what his wife was doing with him! Of cause the moment he won 2.5 million, in spite of "OMG I can pay off debts now" he went to stripclub and spent 20k in one evening. That were a lot of lapdances. And by the time this bio was finished, he and his wife were separated.

tiffany wrote:

Knowing wrote:那我要取个艺名叫一对尖！

why not 4 A?

That is the best possible hand one can be dealt. You only get 2 cards to yourself, the rest are community cards shared by everyone.

我扑闪着纯良的眼睛说：原来如此！

其实我觉得最好的赌名乃是：名钱，姓赢

这资本主义今朝有酒今朝醉，真是腐朽。
在小K揭露了内幕之后，我决定了，万一以后要投身这项不良爱好，最多就到个小赌怡情的级别……往老虎机里扔扔quarter……上网赌它个五分一毛的……

老虎机一点技术含量也没有，不好玩，缺乏成就感。而且payout 也不好。如果要玩完全没技术的，Craps 是赌场游戏里机率最好的。
如果要玩有技术的，Poker 桌子是赌场里最公平的游戏，而且你可以无穷的玩下去，赌场不会赶你。所以真正的职业赌手都是玩扑克的。为什么呢？因为其他游戏都是赌手跟赌场玩，如果赢是赢赌场的钱。赌场都是私人场所，有权挑选客人，如果你赢的太多又是常客，不管你有没有猫腻手段(数牌什么的)，都可以请你走人。参见著名MIT 学生纪实文学<Bring Down The House>。只有扑克(各种扑克都算)是赌手对赌手的游戏，赌场赚一点抽头钱，所以不少职业赌手生活在维加斯，在大额现金赌桌上讨生活，专放世界各地自以为还挺牛跑到维加斯过瘾的阔人的血。

Hoho, then I want to be the one on the same table with Xiao K, holding a pair of J( less than that I may just fold). And we are all in, flop as 9 10 Q off suit, turn as 7, got J or 8 or K on the river.

Oh well, I will call it a bad beat and shrug it off. It happens to everyone. But AA vs JJ is really only 4-1 odds preflop. So I will not initiate ALL_IN unless you are severely shotstacked.

天上的劳动人民不是都有不劳而获的朴素愿望? 不考虑钱的话，老虎机至少是minimum effort的，抬抬胳膊就行，又不用动脑筋。 不过也真挺boring的。
我又仔细想了想，其实我还是挺喜欢poker类游戏的，不喜欢的是大额输赢（过分考验心脏功能），或者需要复杂计算，对我来说有点humiliating……
我羞愧的说，和小K比我真是一点也没有冒险精神。

这都是基因，脑子里线路搭的不一样，你特别 loss avert 。人作决定时往往并非理性，上期New Yorker 有篇讲Neuroeconomics 的文章很有趣:
http://www.newyorker.com/printables/fact/060918fa_fact

Hey! This time it's not me who bring up the g-word!

小K难道华尔街不是最大的赌场么?

我是被你污染的！
其实不完全是基因！文章中用猴子做的实验说明,这个后天是可以训练的。

But how do you know that I'm JJ? We've never meet in person, so you don't know how to read me. For JJ is the hand I will be all in when I'm short on chips.

豪情 wrote:小K难道华尔街不是最大的赌场么?

是的，每次大家跟大老板要求公费去维加斯玩耍，大老板就狡猾的说：咱们每天在办公室下的注比维加斯最大的桌子还大，维加斯多没劲啊，别玩了。我气愤的在心里说但是办公室里我不坐庄。

camellia wrote: But how do you know that I'm JJ? We've never meet in person, so you don't know how to read me. For JJ is the hand I will be all in when I'm short on chips.

You are right. But If you can control the rest of the flops like you just described, I suggest you go all in every hand. And I will be your backer not your opponent.

你特别 loss avert

我又仔细想了想，很对很对，真是性格决定命运啊，即使是在hobby这样的小事情上。还好不妨碍我享受临渊羡鱼绝不结网的乐趣。自己不赌，看人家赌的津津有味还是很高兴的。

楼上两位莫非要实时来一场还兼解说？瘾头不小啊。

I'm just saying that since you're named AA.
I 've seen so many guys got lucky on turn/river on TV. How come?

Because you are seeing the hightlight edition not the whole game. If you actually play a lot, you will notice flop is only seen half of the time.