You Must Read This: Fierce Science Writing

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You Must Read This: Fierce Science Writing

Post by Jun » 2009-10-08 13:14

Holy Cow! This is one of the best popular science articles I have read. Evidence overrides ideology. It is long, but a very absorbing read.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/202789
Why Do We Rape, Kill and Sleep Around?
The fault, dear Darwin, lies not in our ancestors, but in ourselves.
By Sharon Begley | NEWSWEEK

Published Jun 20, 2009

From the magazine issue dated Jun 29, 2009

Among scientists at the university of New Mexico that spring, rape was in the air. One of the professors, biologist Randy Thornhill, had just coauthored A Natural History of Rape: Biological Bases of Sexual Coercion, which argued that rape is (in the vernacular of evolutionary biology) an adaptation, a trait encoded by genes that confers an advantage on anyone who possesses them. Back in the late Pleistocene epoch 100,000 years ago, the 2000 book contended, men who carried rape genes had a reproductive and evolutionary edge over men who did not: they sired children not only with willing mates, but also with unwilling ones, allowing them to leave more offspring (also carrying rape genes) who were similarly more likely to survive and reproduce, unto the nth generation. That would be us. And that is why we carry rape genes today. The family trees of prehistoric men lacking rape genes petered out.

The argument was well within the bounds of evolutionary psychology. Founded in the late 1980s in the ashes of sociobiology, this field asserts that behaviors that conferred a fitness advantage during the era when modern humans were evolving are the result of hundreds of genetically based cognitive "modules" preprogrammed in the brain. Since they are genetic, these modules and the behaviors they encode are heritable—passed down to future generations—and, together, constitute a universal human nature that describes how people think, feel and act, from the nightclubs of Manhattan to the farms of the Amish, from the huts of New Guinea aborigines to the madrassas of Karachi. Evolutionary psychologists do not have a time machine, of course. So to figure out which traits were adaptive during the Stone Age, and therefore bequeathed to us like a questionable family heirloom, they make logical guesses. Men who were promiscuous back then were more evolutionarily fit, the researchers reasoned, since men who spread their seed widely left more descendants. By similar logic, evolutionary psychologists argued, women who were monogamous were fitter; by being choosy about their mates and picking only those with good genes, they could have healthier children. Men attracted to young, curvaceous babes were fitter because such women were the most fertile; mating with dumpy, barren hags is not a good way to grow a big family tree. Women attracted to high-status, wealthy males were fitter; such men could best provide for the kids, who, spared starvation, would grow up to have many children of their own. Men who neglected or even murdered their stepchildren (and killed their unfaithful wives) were fitter because they did not waste their resources on nonrelatives. And so on, to the fitness-enhancing value of rape. We in the 21st century, asserts evo psych, are operating with Stone Age minds.

Over the years these arguments have attracted legions of critics who thought the science was weak and the message (what philosopher David Buller of Northern Illinois University called "a get-out-of-jail-free card" for heinous behavior) pernicious. But the reaction to the rape book was of a whole different order. Biologist Joan Roughgarden of Stanford University called it "the latest 'evolution made me do it' excuse for criminal behavior from evolutionary psychologists." Feminists, sex-crime prosecutors and social scientists denounced it at rallies, on television and in the press.

Among those sucked into the rape debate that spring was anthropologist Kim Hill, then Thornhill's colleague at UNM and now at Arizona State University. For decades Hill has studied the Ache, hunter-gatherer tribesmen in Paraguay. "I saw Thornhill all the time," Hill told me at a barbecue at an ASU conference in April. "He kept saying that he thought rape was a special cognitive adaptation, but the arguments for that just seemed like more sloppy thinking by evolutionary psychology." But how to test the claim that rape increased a man's fitness? From its inception, evolutionary psychology had warned that behaviors that were evolutionarily advantageous 100,000 years ago (a sweet tooth, say) might be bad for survival today (causing obesity and thence infertility), so there was no point in measuring whether that trait makes people more evolutionarily fit today. Even if it doesn't, evolutionary psychologists argue, the trait might have been adaptive long ago and therefore still be our genetic legacy. An unfortunate one, perhaps, but still our legacy. Short of a time machine, the hypothesis was impossible to disprove. Game, set and match to evo psych.

Or so it seemed. But Hill had something almost as good as a time machine. He had the Ache, who live much as humans did 100,000 years ago. He and two colleagues therefore calculated how rape would affect the evolutionary prospects of a 25-year-old Ache. (They didn't observe any rapes, but did a what-if calculation based on measurements of, for instance, the odds that a woman is able to conceive on any given day.) The scientists were generous to the rape-as-adaptation claim, assuming that rapists target only women of reproductive age, for instance, even though in reality girls younger than 10 and women over 60 are often victims. Then they calculated rape's fitness costs and benefits. Rape costs a man fitness points if the victim's husband or other relatives kill him, for instance. He loses fitness points, too, if the mother refuses to raise a child of rape, and if being a known rapist (in a small hunter-gatherer tribe, rape and rapists are public knowledge) makes others less likely to help him find food. Rape increases a man's evolutionary fitness based on the chance that a rape victim is fertile (15 percent), that she will conceive (a 7 percent chance), that she will not miscarry (90 percent) and that she will not let the baby die even though it is the child of rape (90 percent). Hill then ran the numbers on the reproductive costs and benefits of rape. It wasn't even close: the cost exceeds the benefit by a factor of 10. "That makes the likelihood that rape is an evolved adaptation extremely low," says Hill. "It just wouldn't have made sense for men in the Pleistocene to use rape as a reproductive strategy, so the argument that it's preprogrammed into us doesn't hold up."

These have not been easy days for evolutionary psychology. For years the loudest critics have been social scientists, feminists and liberals offended by the argument that humans are preprogrammed to rape, to kill unfaithful girlfriends and the like. (This was a reprise of the bitter sociobiology debates of the 1970s and 1980s. When Harvard biologist Edward O. Wilson proposed that there exists a biologically based human nature, and that it included such traits as militarism and male domination of women, left-wing activists—including eminent biologists in his own department—assailed it as an attempt "to provide a genetic justification of the status quo and of existing privileges for certain groups according to class, race, or sex" analogous to the scientific justification for Nazi eugenics.) When Thornhill appeared on the Today show to talk about his rape book, for instance, he was paired with a sex-crimes prosecutor, leaving the impression that do-gooders might not like his thesis but offering no hint of how scientifically unsound it is.

That is changing. Evo psych took its first big hit in 2005, when NIU's Buller exposed flaw after fatal flaw in key studies underlying its claims, as he laid out in his book Adapting Minds. Anthropological studies such as Hill's on the Ache, shooting down the programmed-to-rape idea, have been accumulating. And brain scientists have pointed out that there is no evidence our gray matter is organized the way evo psych claims, with hundreds of specialized, preprogrammed modules. Neuroscientist Roger Bingham of the University of California, San Diego, who describes himself as a once devout "member of the Church of Evolutionary Psychology" (in 1996 he created and hosted a multimillion-dollar PBS series praising the field), has come out foursquare against it, accusing some of its adherents of an "evangelical" fervor. Says evolutionary biologist Massimo Pigliucci of Stony Brook University, "Evolutionary stories of human behavior make for a good narrative, but not good science."

Like other critics, he has no doubt that evolution shaped the human brain. How could it be otherwise, when evolution has shaped every other human organ? But evo psych's claims that human behavior is constrained by mental modules that calcified in the Stone Age make sense "only if the environmental challenges remain static enough to sculpt an instinct over evolutionary time," Pigliucci points out. If the environment, including the social environment, is instead dynamic rather than static—which all evidence suggests—then the only kind of mind that makes humans evolutionarily fit is one that is flexible and responsive, able to figure out a way to make trade-offs, survive, thrive and reproduce in whatever social and physical environment it finds itself in. In some environments it might indeed be adaptive for women to seek sugar daddies. In some, it might be adaptive for stepfathers to kill their stepchildren. In some, it might be adaptive for men to be promiscuous. But not in all. And if that's the case, then there is no universal human nature as evo psych defines it.

That is what a new wave of studies has been discovering, slaying assertions about universals right and left. One evo-psych claim that captured the public's imagination—and a 1996 cover story in NEWSWEEK—is that men have a mental module that causes them to prefer women with a waist-to-hip ratio of 0.7 (a 36-25-36 figure, for instance). Reprising the rape debate, social scientists and policymakers who worried that this would send impressionable young women scurrying for a measuring tape and a how-to book on bulimia could only sputter about how pernicious this message was, but not that it was scientifically wrong. To the contrary, proponents of this idea had gobs of data in their favor. Using their favorite guinea pigs—American college students—they found that men, shown pictures of different female body types, picked Ms. 36-25-36 as their sexual ideal. The studies, however, failed to rule out the possibility that the preference was not innate—human nature—but, rather, the product of exposure to mass culture and the messages it sends about what's beautiful. Such basic flaws, notes Bingham, "led to complaints that many of these experiments seemed a little less than rigorous to be underpinning an entire new field."

Later studies, which got almost no attention, indeed found that in isolated populations in Peru and Tanzania, men consider hourglass women sickly looking. They prefer 0.9s—heavier women. And last December, anthropologist Elizabeth Cashdan of the University of Utah reported in the journal Current Anthropology that men now prefer this non-hourglass shape in countries where women tend to be economically independent (Britain and Denmark) and in some non-Western societies where women bear the responsibility for finding food. Only in countries where women are economically dependent on men (such as Japan, Greece and Portugal) do men have a strong preference for Barbie. (The United States is in the middle.) Cashdan puts it this way: which body type men prefer "should depend on [italics added] the degree to which they want their mates to be strong, tough, economically successful and politically competitive."

Depend on? The very phrase is anathema to the dogma of a universal human nature. But it is the essence of an emerging, competing field. Called behavioral ecology, it starts from the premise that social and environmental forces select for various behaviors that optimize people's fitness in a given environment. Different environment, different behaviors—and different human "natures." That's why men prefer Ms. 36-25-36 in some cultures (where women are, to exaggerate only a bit, decorative objects) but not others (where women bring home salaries or food they've gathered in the jungle).

And it's why the evo psych tenet that men have an inherited mental module that causes them to prefer young, beautiful women while women have one that causes them to prefer older, wealthy men also falls apart. As 21st-century Western women achieve professional success and gain financial independence, their mate preference changes, scientists led by Fhionna Moore at Scotland's University of St Andrews reported in 2006 in the journal Evolutionand Human Behaviour. The more financially independent a woman is, the more likely she is to choose a partner based on looks than bank balance—kind of like (some) men. (Yes, growing sexual equality in the economic realm means that women, too, are free to choose partners based on how hot they are, as the cougar phenomenon suggests.) Although that finding undercuts evo psych, it supports the "it depends" school of behavioral ecology, which holds that natural selection chose general intelligence and flexibility, not mental modules preprogrammed with preferences and behaviors. "Evolutionary psychology ridicules the notion that the brain could have evolved to be an all-purpose fitness-maximizing mechanism," says Hill. "But that's exactly what we keep finding."

One of the uglier claims of evo psych is that men have a mental module to neglect and even kill their stepchildren. Such behavior was adaptive back when humans were evolving, goes the popular version of this argument, because men who invested in stepchildren wasted resources they could expend on their biological children. Such kindly stepfathers would, over time, leave fewer of their own descendants, causing "support your stepchildren" genes to die out. Men with genes that sculpted the "abandon stepchildren" mental module were evolutionarily fitter, so their descendants—us—also have that preprogrammed module. The key evidence for this claim comes from studies showing that stepchildren under the age of 5 are 40 times more likely to be abused than biological children.

Those studies have come under fire, however, for a long list of reasons. For instance, many child-welfare records do not indicate who the abuser was; at least some abused stepchildren are victims of their mother, not the stepfather, the National Incidence Study of Child Abuse and Neglect reported in 2005. That suggests that records inflate the number of instances of abuse by stepfathers. Also, authorities are suspicious of stepfathers; if a child living in a stepfamily dies of maltreatment, they are nine times more likely to record it as such than if the death occurs in a home with only biological parents, found a 2002 study led by Buller examining the records of every child who died in Colorado from 1990 to 1998. That suggests that child-abuse data undercount instances of abuse by biological fathers. Finally, a 2008 study in Sweden found that many men who kill stepchildren are (surprise) mentally ill. It's safe to assume that single mothers do not exactly get their pick of the field when it comes to remarrying. If the men they wed are therefore more likely to be junkies, drunks and psychotic, then any additional risk to stepchildren reflects that fact, and not a universal mental module that tells men to abuse their new mate's existing kids. Martin Daly and Margo Wilson of Canada's McMaster University, whose work led to the idea that men have a mental module for neglecting stepchildren, now disavow the claim that such abuse was ever adaptive. But, says Daly, "attempts to deny that [being a stepfather] is a risk factor for maltreatment are simply preposterous and occasionally, as in the writings of David Buller, dishonest."

If the data on child abuse by stepfathers seem inconsistent, that's exactly the point. In some circumstances, it may indeed be adaptive to get rid of the other guy's children. In other circumstances, it is more adaptive to love and support them. Again, it depends. New research in places as different as American cities and the villages of African hunter-gatherers shows that it's common for men to care and provide for their stepchildren. What seems to characterize these situations, says Hill, is marital instability: men and women pair off, have children, then break up. In such a setting, the flexible human mind finds ways "to attract or maintain mating access to the mother," Hill explains. Or, more crudely, be nice to a woman's kids and she'll sleep with you, which maximizes a man's fitness. Kill her kids and she's likely to take it badly, cutting you off and leaving your sperm unable to fulfill their Darwinian mission. And in societies that rely on relatives to help raise kids, "it doesn't make sense to destroy a 10-year-old stepkid since he could be a helper," Hill points out. "The fitness cost of raising a stepchild until he is old enough to help is much, much less than evolutionary biologists have claimed. Biology is more complicated than these simplistic scenarios saying that killing stepchildren is an adaptation that enhances a man's fitness."

Even the notion that being a brave warrior helps a man get the girls and leave many offspring has been toppled. Until missionaries moved in in 1958, the Waorani tribe of the Ecuadoran Amazon had the highest rates of homicide known to science: 39 percent of women and 54 percent of men were killed by other Waorani, often in blood feuds that lasted generations. "The conventional wisdom had been that the more raids a man participated in, the more wives he would have and the more descendants he would leave," says anthropologist Stephen Beckerman of Pennsylvania State University. But after painstakingly constructing family histories and the raiding and killing records of 95 warriors, he and his colleagues reported last month in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, they turned that belief on its head. "The badass guys make terrible husband material," says Beckerman. "Women don't prefer them as husbands and they become the targets of counterraids, which tend to kill their wives and children, too." As a result, the über-warriors leave fewer descendants—the currency of evolutionary fitness—than less aggressive men. Tough-guy behavior may have conferred fitness in some environments, but not in others. It depends. "The message for the evolutionary-psychology guys," says Beckerman, "is that there was no single environment in which humans evolved" and therefore no single human nature.

I can't end the list of evo-psych claims that fall apart under scientific scrutiny without mentioning jealousy. Evo psych argues that jealousy, too, is an adaptation with a mental module all its own, designed to detect and thwart threats to reproductive success. But men's and women's jealousy modules supposedly differ. A man's is designed to detect sexual infidelity: a woman who allows another man to impregnate her takes her womb out of service for at least nine months, depriving her mate of reproductive opportunities. A woman's jealousy module is tuned to emotional infidelity, but she doesn't much care if her mate is unfaithful; a man, being a promiscuous cad, will probably stick with wife No. 1 and their kids even if he is sexually unfaithful, but may well abandon them if he actually falls in love with another woman.

Let's not speculate on the motives that (mostly male) evolutionary psychologists might have in asserting that their wives are programmed to not really care if they sleep around, and turn instead to the evidence. In questionnaires, more men than women say they'd be upset more by sexual infidelity than emotional infidelity, by a margin of more than 2-to-1, David Buss of the University of Texas found in an early study of American college students. But men are evenly split on which kind of infidelity upsets them more: half find it more upsetting to think of their mate falling in love with someone else; half find it more upsetting to think of her sleeping with someone else. Not very strong evidence for the claim that men, as a species, care more about sexual infidelity. And in some countries, notably Germany and the Netherlands, the percentage of men who say they find sexual infidelity more upsetting than the emotional kind is only 28 percent and 23 percent. Which suggests that, once again, it depends: in cultures with a relaxed view of female sexuality, men do not get all that upset if a woman has a brief, meaningless fling. It does not portend that she will leave him. It is much more likely that both men and women are wired to detect behavior that threatens their bond, but what that behavior is depends on culture. In a society where an illicit affair portends the end of a relationship, men should indeed be wired to care about that. In a society where that's no big deal, they shouldn't—and, it seems, don't. New data on what triggers jealousy in women also undercut the simplistic evo-psych story. Asked which upsets them more—imagining their partner having acrobatic sex with another woman or falling in love with her—only 13 percent of U.S. women, 12 percent of Dutch women and 8 percent of German women chose door No. 2. So much for the handy "she's wired to not really care if I sleep around" excuse.

Critics of evo psych do not doubt that men and women are wired to become jealous. A radar for infidelity would indeed be adaptive. But the evidence points toward something gender-neutral. Men and women have both evolved the ability to distinguish between behavior that portends abandonment and behavior that does not, and to get upset only at the former. Which behavior is which depends on the society.

Evolutionary psychology is not going quietly. It has had the field to itself, especially in the media, for almost two decades. In large part that was because early critics, led by the late evolutionary biologist Stephen Jay Gould, attacked it with arguments that went over the heads of everyone but about 19 experts in evolutionary theory. It isn't about to give up that hegemony. Thornhill is adamant that rape is an adaptation, despite Hill's results from his Ache study. "If a particular trait or behavior is organized to do something," as he believes rape is, "then it is an adaptation and so was selected for by evolution," he told me. And in the new book Spent, evolutionary psychologist Geoffrey Miller of the University of New Mexico reasserts the party line, arguing that "males have much more to gain from many acts of intercourse with multiple partners than do females," and there is a "universal sex difference in human mate choice criteria, with men favoring younger, fertile women, and women favoring older, higher-status, richer men."

On that point, the evidence instead suggests that both sexes prefer mates around their own age, adjusted for the fact that men mature later than women. If the male mind were adapted to prefer the most fertile women, then AARP-eligible men should marry 23-year-olds, which—Anna Nicole Smith and J. Howard Marshall notwithstanding—they do not, instead preferring women well past their peak fertility. And, interestingly, when Miller focuses on the science rather than tries to sell books, he allows that "human mate choice is much more than men just liking youth and beauty, and women liking status and wealth," as he told me by e-mail.

Yet evo psych remains hugely popular in the media and on college campuses, for obvious reasons. It addresses "these very sexy topics," says Hill. "It's all about sex and violence," and has what he calls "an obsession with Pleistocene just-so stories." And few people—few scientists—know about the empirical data and theoretical arguments that undercut it. "Most scientists are too busy to read studies outside their own narrow field," he says.

Far from ceding anything, evolutionary psychologists have moved the battle from science, where they are on shaky ground, to ideology, where bluster and name-calling can be quite successful. UNM's Miller, for instance, complains that critics "have convinced a substantial portion of the educated public that evolutionary psychology is a pernicious right-wing conspiracy," and complains that believing in evolutionary psychology is seen "as an indicator of conservatism, disagreeableness and selfishness." That, sadly, is how much too much of the debate has gone. "Critics have been told that they're just Marxists motivated by a hatred of evolutionary psychology," says Buller. "That's one reason I'm not following the field anymore: the way science is being conducted is more like a political campaign."

Where, then, does the fall of evolutionary psychology leave the idea of human nature? Behavioral ecology replaces it with "it depends"—that is, the core of human nature is variability and flexibility, the capacity to mold behavior to the social and physical demands of the environment. As Buller says, human variation is not noise in the system; it is the system. To be sure, traits such as symbolic language, culture, tool use, emotions and emotional expression do indeed seem to be human universals. It's the behaviors that capture the public imagination—promiscuous men and monogamous women, stepchild-killing men and the like—that turn out not to be. And for a final nail in the coffin, geneticists have discovered that human genes evolve much more quickly than anyone imagined when evolutionary psychology was invented, when everyone assumed that "modern" humans had DNA almost identical to that of people 50,000 years ago. Some genes seem to be only 10,000 years old, and some may be even younger.

That has caught the attention of even the most ardent proponents of evo psych, because when the environment is changing rapidly—as when agriculture was invented or city-states arose—is also when natural selection produces the most dramatic changes in a gene pool. Yet most of the field's leaders, admits UNM's Miller, "have not kept up with the last decade's astounding progress in human evolutionary genetics." The discovery of genes as young as agriculture and city-states, rather than as old as cavemen, means "we have to rethink to foundational assumptions" of evo psych, says Miller, starting with the claim that there are human universals and that they are the result of a Stone Age brain. Evolution indeed sculpted the human brain. But it worked in malleable plastic, not stone, bequeathing us flexible minds that can take stock of the world and adapt to it.

With Jeneen Interlandi
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Re: You Must Read This: Fierce Science Writing

Post by Jun » 2009-10-08 13:49

http://www.newsweek.com/id/215179

Born to Be Big: Early exposure to common chemicals may be programming kids to be fat.
It's easy enough to find culprits in the nation's epidemic of obesity, starting with tubs of buttered popcorn at the multiplex and McDonald's 1,220-calorie deluxe breakfasts, and moving on to the couch potatofication of America. Potent as they are, however, these causes cannot explain the ballooning of one particular segment of the population, a segment that doesn't go to movies, can't chew, and was never that much into exercise: babies. In 2006 scientists at the Harvard School of Public Health reported that the prevalence of obesity in infants under 6 months had risen 73 percent since 1980. ...

The search for the non-obvious has led to a familiar villain: early-life exposure to traces of chemicals in the environment. Evidence has been steadily accumulating that certain hormone-mimicking pollutants, ubiquitous in the food chain, have two previously unsuspected effects. They act on genes in the developing fetus and newborn to turn more precursor cells into fat cells, which stay with you for life. And they may alter metabolic rate, so that the body hoards calories rather than burning them, like a physiological Scrooge. "The evidence now emerging says that being overweight is not just the result of personal choices about what you eat, combined with inactivity," says Retha Newbold of the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS) in North Carolina, part of the National Institutes of Health (NIH). "Exposure to environmental chemicals during development may be contributing to the obesity epidemic." They are not the cause of extra pounds in every person who is overweight—for older adults, who were less likely to be exposed to so many of the compounds before birth, the standard explanations of genetics and lifestyle probably suffice—but environmental chemicals may well account for a good part of the current epidemic, especially in those under 50. And at the individual level, exposure to the compounds during a critical period of development may explain one of the most frustrating aspects of weight gain: you eat no more than your slim friends, and exercise no less, yet are still unable to shed pounds.
I swear I had not read the article when I wrote this:
打生长激素和滥用抗生素到底有没有长期后果,谁也没有研究过,说不定是有的,但是没有象 E. coli 那样吃下去立刻上吐下泻,让消费者怎么进行公平和 informed 选择?现在这年月,免疫系统疾病,乳腺癌,autism,老年痴呆症,各个发病率疯长,谁知道是吃的还是喝的还是用的还是什么东西造成的?所有的安全研究都是看吃下去吐不吐,很难而且很少有人研究十年二十年一直用下去会不会毒到人。
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Re: You Must Read This: Fierce Science Writing

Post by Knowing » 2009-10-08 14:28

They act on genes in the developing fetus and newborn to turn more precursor cells into fat cells, which stay with you for life. And they may alter metabolic rate
-- is that part of epigenetic study? does the alternation get to be passed on to the next generation?
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Re: You Must Read This: Fierce Science Writing

Post by Jun » 2009-10-08 14:32

Knowing wrote:
They act on genes in the developing fetus and newborn to turn more precursor cells into fat cells, which stay with you for life. And they may alter metabolic rate
-- is that part of epigenetic study? does the alternation get to be passed on to the next generation?
First question: No need for epigenetics (attachment of "markers" on DNA). Once a cell is turned into fat cell, it stays a fat cell for life.

Second question: Don't know.
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Re: You Must Read This: Fierce Science Writing

Post by Knowing » 2009-10-08 14:41

The world is so messed up. :action077: :action077:
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Re: You Must Read This: Fierce Science Writing

Post by mirrorflower » 2009-10-08 14:57

第一篇文章的确很好看。那些所谓进化心理学家的种种理论,其实说起来仿佛的确是像那么回事的,仿佛解释起来也能说得通。但是可能就缺少严密的科学研究和计算——当然了,这种计算并不容易。比如在那个强奸的例子里面,怎么选择win vs. loss的那些个百分比,我估计有的争。另外的确这些话题太容易让人激动,然后争个不停,最后完全偏离到不知道什么地方去了。

第二个里面说的chemicals,有具体说到可能是哪些吗?我在想如果是那些抗生素之类,为什么它们会让婴儿发育中形成更多的脂肪细胞呢?
"A wealth of information creates a poverty of attention."

mirrorflower
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Re: You Must Read This: Fierce Science Writing

Post by mirrorflower » 2009-10-08 14:57

Knowing wrote:The world is so messed up. :action077: :action077:
It always is ah :mrgreen:
"A wealth of information creates a poverty of attention."

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Re: You Must Read This: Fierce Science Writing

Post by Jun » 2009-10-08 15:36

mirrorflower wrote:另外的确这些话题太容易让人激动,然后争个不停,最后完全偏离到不知道什么地方去了。
Well, actually, the author pointed out that there is simply no evidence, no data, no fact, to support the evo psych theories. No evidence, no bacon, regardless of whether 这些话题太容易让人激动 or not. Theories are a dime a dozen. Pretending to be scientific does not a scientist make. Holding a professorship alone does not make a person credible.
第二个里面说的chemicals,有具体说到可能是哪些吗?我在想如果是那些抗生素之类,为什么它们会让婴儿发育中形成更多的脂肪细胞呢?
The link in my post takes you to the original full article. The chemicals that have been studied and linked to obesity are trace additives in plastic products, pesticides, and other stuff that are used in everything and seep into the environment everywhere.
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Re: You Must Read This: Fierce Science Writing

Post by Jun » 2009-10-08 20:08

第一篇里特别有一件事我很喜欢她的毫不留情的揭露和打击:Evolutionary Psychology 的骨干人物到外面宣扬人性黑暗面是特定基因的遗传后果,因为生存优势而流传下来,他们跟社会学者(包括女权理论学者)辩论还可以硬撑着“我们讲科学不讲道德,你们不懂”的套路,但是一跟真正的科学家对阵立刻原形毕露,见光即化成一滩脓血。没有证据,甚至被简单的推理驳倒,只能说明是想当然耳+一厢情愿的理论,一文不值。如果就这样还拼命死抱着理论不放,那就显然是另有自身的原因了,跟科学何干呢?

很多这种想当然耳+一厢情愿的理论其实很容易证伪,什么男人都如何如何女人都如何如何,都是自然大手拧的必然走向,只要看看不同文化和社会(同时代和不同时代都可以对比)环境下的民族与人群是不是行为都一样,即可推断观察到的行为是否有普遍意义,还是由当时的社会规范和价值观决定,例如,男人和女人的求偶审美观。人类学研究方法不是早就搞定了么?总得跑到原始部落收集点证据才能跟“持久稳定的人性”沾上点儿边哪。

人类的行为和 psychological traits,其实只要注意一下精神疾病的基因研究就知道,根本不可能是一块一块的稳定地通过基因传下来。即使是同一症状,都可能牵涉到几百上千个不同的基因,除了 Huntington disease,凡是扯到脑子的问题,基本上就没有什么是单基因的现象。
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Re: You Must Read This: Fierce Science Writing

Post by 幻儿 » 2009-10-08 20:51

我认识一个学Evolutionary Psychology的人,给他看过这篇文章,他说这样的攻击太多了,模式都一样:present a false theory that the evolutionary psychologists never suggested or supported and then say how wrong it is.
我再问问他evolutionary psychologists 到底说的是啥。

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Re: You Must Read This: Fierce Science Writing

Post by Jun » 2009-10-08 22:37

http://www.scientificamerican.com/artic ... -fallacies

我不认识任何 evolutionary psychologist ,不知道 Thornhill 这种人算不算是 evolutionary psychologist。也许早被行内 disowned 也说不定。

上面这篇文章今年早些时候就看见过,错记成是 Nature 里的,翻了一晚上也没找到,后来查 PubMed 才发现是 Sci Am 里面的。

不论什么理论和流派,只要能拿出事实证据来支持自己的理论并且击退与理论不符或者矛盾的证据,即可成立,直到被对立证据推翻为止。主流及可靠的妇科内分泌医学也曾经依据片面的数据而相信荷尔蒙补充疗法能够降低更年期后妇女的心血管疾病危险,后来反面证据积累,大家于是放弃和推翻过去的理论,以新理论和新数据代而替之。任何一个科学分支只要遵守这个过程,就是真科学。
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Re: You Must Read This: Fierce Science Writing

Post by Knowing » 2009-10-09 8:58

hmm...maybe I am not scientific, but I like behavioral ecology already! :mrgreen: Just kidding. people believe what they want to believe. All the scientific evidence in the world can't change their mind.
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Re: You Must Read This: Fierce Science Writing

Post by 幻儿 » 2009-10-09 11:43

我复述一下那个朋友说的哈 :

1. EP涉及很多方面的研究,可Begley专门挑最provocative在行业内部也有争论的部分,甚至她有些说法是她引用的EP专家都不支持的。EP人从来没有跑到外面用他们的理论justify不道德行为。这是媒体大众的想法。Begley的文章貌似公允科学,实际上仍然是用一大堆的inference取悦大众, 所以Begley的文不科学也不客观。
(这让我想起以前有人做研究,得出结论说亚裔比白人的平均IQ高5, 白人比非裔美国人高10-15. 媒体和大众集体性选择忘记前半段, 只讨论后半段, 然后对这个数据的inference是黑人天生不如白人, 进一步的inference是黑人天生蠢笨无法学好, 进一步还有人infer说黑人就都送监狱就好了. 于是做这项研究的人的人当然只能是种族主义者了.)

2. Begley的文章把基本事实搞错了. 她说Human Behavior Ecology是取代了EP的新学科,但是实际上HBE比EP诞生年代早多了. 而且HBE和EP在社会学领域里是相同的地方多,不同的地方少. 在很多地方是inter-changeable. 我朋友说他知道两个不完全一样,但是他都不太说得不上来具体的不同,他的导师就是两方面都研究,虽然self-identification 是 EP. 文章把这两个分支搞得相反或者相对, 说明作者对这个领域根本不了解.

3. 这个地方他用了很多technical的词,我没怎么听明白,或者当时好像明白了, 现在又忘了. 基本上文章强调说EP只用基因解释行为, 可是EP同样也注重后天的, 也有很多flexibility, adaptation以及"depend on" 这些. EP是nature and nurture都研究的,但是Begley的文章说EP只讲Nature.

我个人对EP并不了解, 虽然很感兴趣. 我看这个文章的却也觉得煽动的地方多.
比如
"Let's not speculate on the motives that (mostly male) evolutionary psychologists might have in asserting that their wives are programmed to not really care if they sleep around, and turn instead to the evidence."
这不是科学写作.

还有这句, 我真不敢相信这个也能以科学的名义登出来:
"If the male mind were adapted to prefer the most fertile women, then AARP-eligible men should marry 23-year-olds, which—Anna Nicole Smith and J. Howard Marshall notwithstanding—they do not, instead preferring women well past their peak fertility."
有一样东西叫做"ceteris paribus," 难道Begley女士会不知道么? 看来确实不知道, 2005年她在WSJ的一篇文章里已经说过类似的话:
"Besides, if you scrutinize the data, you find that 50-ish men prefer 40-something women, not 25-year-olds, undermining a core claim of evo psych."
难道事后没有科学家给她普及一下ceteris paribus? 竟然09年又说一遍 :nono: 而且我觉得这不用啥data也是没有争议的吧 -- gentlemen club里的老头是喜欢23岁的姑娘还是40岁的姑娘涅? 为什么Begley非得否认常识涅:roll:

上面是不科学的想法, 下面是EP界科学的反驳 :-D

Gad Saad: http://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/hom ... psychology
Dan Sperber: http://www.cognitionandculture.net/inde ... &Itemid=34
David Sloan Wilson: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-slo ... 20545.html

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Re: You Must Read This: Fierce Science Writing

Post by Knowing » 2009-10-09 12:06

gentlemen club里的老头是喜欢23岁的姑娘还是40岁的姑娘涅?
一定是喜欢胸大的那个。 :mrgreen: 你这个取样也有问题,跟大学男生群里得出来的研究结果差不多。

ceteris paribus 在social science 里怎么做?我觉得都没法做啊。不象老鼠,可以拿一窝纯的来,做严格控制只有一个变量的对照实验。年轻这个变量也没法define.如果20和40 长的在灯光底下看上去摸上去都一样,这实验肯定没意义。 如果皱纹多少什么的算年轻的一部分,那么经验什么的算么?
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Re: You Must Read This: Fierce Science Writing

Post by Jun » 2009-10-09 12:09

(这让我想起以前有人做研究,得出结论说亚裔比白人的平均IQ高5, 白人比非裔美国人高10-15. 媒体和大众集体性选择忘记前半段, 只讨论后半段, 然后对这个数据的inference是黑人天生不如白人, 进一步的inference是黑人天生蠢笨无法学好, 进一步还有人infer说黑人就都送监狱就好了. 于是做这项研究的人的人当然只能是种族主义者了.)
I'm sure the authors of "The Bell Curve", "Harvard psychologist Richard J. Herrnstein and American Enterprise Institute political scientist Charles Murray" do not believe themselves to be racists. But I have seen the book and I think they certainly are. I saw all the hoopla in the 90s and 媒体和大众集体性选择 was not the whole story. The Bell Curve book was NOT science, and their "research methods" have long been torn apart by real scientists.

打着研究的旗号,不等于搞研究的人没有某种跟科学无关的动机。在 AEI 搞政治社科的人掺和进去,完全有理由讨论做研究者的动机是什么,因为跟科学和求实无关的动机往往令研究者对事实证据视而不见。

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bell_Curve

I am sure any fact- and data- and evidence-based theories in Evolutionary Psychology are embraced by science as long as scientific rigor is applied. Theories that are disproved by facts and data, be they in cosmology or genetics OR PSYCHOLOGY, should be abandoned.

*************************************************
The problem with "All men prefer ... All women prefer ..." theory is NOT that these OBSERVATIONS are not true. They might very well be true.

The problem is that so-and-so evolutionary psychologist put forth a theory that postulates, "Men universally prefer young women because the trait of men preferring younger women is a stable, heritable genetic phenotype, and the genetic trait has been carried to this day because it confers evolutionary advantage. Conversely, women universally prefer older, richer, more powerful men because this is also a heritable genetic trait passed on from the ancient time to today, because it confers evolutionary advantage."

Fine, prove it. It's not enough to observe men prefer young women. The theorist must provide data to support the claim that preferring young women is caused by a heritable trait or related to genes and that the heritable trait is passed on because of an advantage in natural selection, like "men who consistently mate with younger women have more offspring" or "women who marry older, richer men have more children who survive," . That kind of data would count as supporting evidence.
而且我觉得这不用啥data也是没有争议的吧 -- gentlemen club里的老头是喜欢23岁的姑娘还是40岁的姑娘涅? 为什么Begley非得否认常识涅
One of the reasons why science is often very unpopular with the masses is precisely that DATA and systematic scientific methods have toppled 没有争议的常识 over and over again, from the sun revolves around earth to women are stupider than men.

强奸是否自然现象?强奸者是否绝大多数为男性?是,这些都是实打实的自然现象,没有问题,但是这个自然现象背后的理由是否“强奸行为是一个遗传特征,因为有生存意义,而被进化过程和自然选择保存至今”,没数据嘛。有数据出来我们再商量。

女人偏爱有钱有势的男人,男人偏爱腰臀围比例 0.7 以及年龄低于30岁的女人,也许的确是我们周围的普遍现象,也许甚至是自然生理现象,但是第一尚未以数据证明是与生俱来的生理本能现象,第二原因是否跟进化过程和自然选择有任何关系,都没有数据拿出来,现在就长篇大论地“因为所以”起来,为时太早,所值也就是一毛钱一打,跟其他有理论没证据的假设是一样的。
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Re: You Must Read This: Fierce Science Writing

Post by Knowing » 2009-10-09 12:53

上次有个human genome project 的director 来讲话,别误会他不是来说男人喜欢年轻女人之类很难量化的研究的。他们研究的主要是遗传病,癌症什么的。还有就是什么药对什么基因排列的人管用。他说,很少有光是一个基因码管的病,别以为验个基因你就知道以后一定要得啥癌,万念具灰的坐着等死了。单基因管的事儿早就都众人皆知了。剩下这些有没有某个基因一般都没有显著概率差别. 一般都是至少两三个基因码出现会提高某病出现的概率10% 到15%什么的。比方该病发病率本来就是30%,你生病的概率就是33% 什么的。然后如果能算更多的组合当然就更有针对性,但是到现在为止还没算过来。你想啊,人有20k 到25k个基因代码,就说20k 吧,算其中一个跟数据库里所有病例的相关度如果计算量是P,其中任意两个组合,算相关度的计算量就是 19999*P,约为20000*P. 算其中三个的组合约为(400000000)*P,算四个基因组合就是(20K^3)*P, 反正很快就算不过来了。我本来还觉得计算机行业反正牛,芯片速度隔几年翻十倍,分布处理啊双芯四芯啊,新技术层出不穷,肯定能造出够快的机器硬算硬算破解基因之谜。听完他说我就傻了,这个是次方次方的往上翻复杂度,就是最小的基数是二,也顶不住这么翻啊,人的基因码还那么多!一来就是二十多万条的基数,翻一次,硬件得发展多少年才能给算下来。还是得生物学家动脑子先做有意义的假设才能验证,不然就是大海捞针。扯那么多扯到那里去了?哦,我的意思是,要是能把问题都简化成是XY还是XX 起决定作用就好了。。。省多少事。。。。或者都是"黑人白人黄人",也还算的过来. 不过人家human genome project 不研究这些,主要是想研究为什么有的药(尤其是癌症药),对有的人管用有的人不管用,有数据以后可以按基因下药啥的。社会学家心理学家研究这些事儿都是什么目的啊,我很功利的想。
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Re: You Must Read This: Fierce Science Writing

Post by 幻儿 » 2009-10-12 14:41

关于EP的研究方法和数据,以下摘自wiki: “Evolutionary psychologists use several methods and data sources to test their hypotheses, as well as various comparative methods to test for similarities and differences between: humans and other species, males and females, individuals within a species, and between the same individuals in different contexts. They also use more traditional experimental methods involving, for example, dependent and independent variables.

Evolutionary psychologists also use various sources of data for testing, including archeological records, data from hunter-gatherer societies, observational studies, self-reports, public records, and human products.”

我自己对这个学科没有研究,但是听起来这个学科和经济学的研究方法是相似的,都是提出一个hypothesis,然后用数据证明,并不是光靠hypothesis卖钱的。
我没有看过相关方面的书籍,但是不敢断然说“第一尚未以数据证明是与生俱来的生理本能现象,第二原因是否跟进化过程和自然选择有任何关系,都没有数据拿出来,现在就长篇大论地“因为所以”起来,为时太早,所值也就是一毛钱一打,跟其他有理论没证据的假设是一样的。”
我想这么politically incorrect的学科可以存在30年没被灭掉,应该是有一定的科学研究方法和数据做根基的。

关于ceteris paribus, 社科类(尤其是经济学)一般是用dependent and independent variables来控制。比如Freakoeconomics里面那些例子,比如孩子的名字对前途的影响:要把其他所有可能影响孩子前途的因素都control起来。社科类的这种研究当然也比不上纯自然科学的实验。理想的实验当然是找一群什么都一样的孩子,然后给他们取不同的名字,放到一模一样的环境里,看他们长大后的成就。可是这不可能,退而求其次用的都是second best的办法,基本上方法和数据足够过硬,结果就算是科学的了。

关于目的,就跟自然科学家要了解自然界现象及其成因一样,社科类的人是想了解人类行为的各种现象和成因--这有什么难以理解的呢? :roll:

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Re: You Must Read This: Fierce Science Writing

Post by Jun » 2009-10-13 19:14

社会科学,包括经济学和很大一部分的心理学,当然不能不算研究和探索世界的工具,但是它们领域圈子里对证据和证明的要求,实在比科学领域的研究和证明的要求低得太多了。当然,一方面因为科学试验的方法大多数不能在人和人群中使用,但是不能否认大多数(?)社会科学对数据和研究方法的 quality 的标准不是科学界的标准。很多在社科里足够好,足够发表和宣布的求证方法,拿到科学里是不会被接受的。Freakonomics 也好,Malcolm Gladwell 也好,描述眼前的社会现象是够不错了,至少有收集数据,而且有启发思考的作用。但是放到研究甚至解释因果关系上面,只能说,还只是在“黄手指导致肺癌”的水平上,跟科学方法的严格要求和对抗论证和 replication 不是一个层面上的。

但是耸人听闻的结论之类,特别是社会科学的结论似乎经常可以立刻应用到现实生活中,通俗易懂,人人代入,所以诱惑力很大,而严格的科学研究大多数结论微乎其微,还附带很多小心翼翼的条件和假设,所以媒体大众没兴趣耐心听。

很多研究按照社会科学研究的标准来看,大多数时候还是可以接受的程度,但是如果渗入严格科学的领域,例如 evolutionary biology 或者 neuropsychology ,就不得不接受后者的评判和辩证的标准,那么就经常在论证因果理论的时候被驳得体无完肤碎成片片。Too many leaps of logic, not enough evidence. 前阵子有些经济学家插脚进医学和epidemiology 的研究,例如看电视导致儿童自闭症的理论,拿出来被医学界当笑话看。这不是因为他们的 statistical association 方法本身是错的,而是因为他们完全忽略(不懂?没见过?)神经发展医学和基因学方面对自闭症的研究成果,所以 failed to take these facts into their theories。外行就是外行。

如果人的动机都是纯洁的“求知”,世界可就雪白多了。偏离“求知”这个目的而带有个人感情投资的动机,非要证明自己的 preconceived notion,不仅比比皆是,而且应该引起比平时更多的 skepticism,因为这种动机让研究者自己更容易无视反面证据和 alternative explanations 而坚定地在死胡同里走到黑。其实心理学家应该比别人更明白 bias 的现象和道理,脑子里先存了很希望证明某个理论(例如老男人被小女孩吸引是动物本能和生理现象,或者女性天性---即无法控制自己地---被男性的权力和金钱sexually turned on,或者脑壳体积越大人越聪明)的愿望和动机,就容易扭曲研究方法,失去求证和分析过程中的客观和严密性。科学家(包括社科之外的“传统”科学家)也是人,所以也会被感情和动机侵蚀和带有 bias,这个现象一点也不难理解而且非常普遍,所以 skepticism 才这么重要。完全不带 skepticism 的世界观,hmm... 也许 ignorance is bliss ,纯洁的心最幸福,但是skepticism 是科学方法中的一个关键成分(虽然 skepticism 与否未必是个天生的 trait)。

****************************************************************************************

题外话:进化论是一套看似简单实则精巧的理论,极易被误解和错用。很多人以为“适者生存”,所以存在即合理,只要是目前被保存下来的 traits 就一定是最好的 adaptation,因为其他的 traits 想必在历史上的竞争过程中被淘汰了,或者所有现存的 traits 都带有 survival advantage。事情不是那么简单。有很多的 traits 遗传下来只不过是因为它们还坏得不够,没有把物种个体在生孩子之前给干掉了;或者某些基因流传下来只不过因为祖先是这样的,就不可能出现别样的变异“公平竞争”。人的两只眼睛向前看而不是象鱼那样一边一只,只不过是因为我们的祖祖先是这样而已,并不是因为向前看的两只眼比一边一只更高级更"fit"。

一个可观察的trait (在现代美国社会,一定数目的老男人喜欢泡年轻女人)是直接的遗传结果还是间接的非遗传的行为(例如 后天的从众的社会性行为特征),也许在有些人的心目中毫无差别,但是从遗传生物学的角度来看,是完全不同的两个命题。
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Re: You Must Read This: Fierce Science Writing

Post by 幻儿 » 2009-10-14 15:11

Jun, 我明白你的意思了。 :mrgreen:

Begley那篇文章给我的感觉还是披着科学客观的外套去批评人家不科学,实际上只不过是因为人家政治不正确。批评当然欢迎,不过我不喜欢这样挂羊头卖狗肉的批评。

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