[zz] Tim Kreider: 问专家谁是专家

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Jun
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[zz] Tim Kreider: 问专家谁是专家

Post by Jun » 2013-11-30 23:25

看到一篇文章挺有意思,最近我也时常有类似的感受,被他讲清楚了,拿来分享一下。

http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/20 ... dont-know/
The Power of ‘I Don’t Know’
By TIM KREIDER

...
There seems to be a widespread presumption that writing is prescriptive (or proscriptive) rather than simply observational or meditative. Some people condemn or commend even memoirs and novels as though their purpose were to instruct or offer models. I suppose I can’t entirely fault readers for this misapprehension. Confident authority is an appropriate tone for straight reportage, but it’s become the default of columnists, essayists and bloggers, one that’s so reflexive that some of them seem to forget it’s a pose.

...
You’d think these disclaimers could go without saying; every piece of writing includes the tacit caveat: Or I could be wrong. And yet quite a lot of readers respond to your personal observations with wounded outrage when they fail to reflect their own experience, as if you were proposing your idle speculation as totalitarian law.

...
This is another reason so many writers feel the need to impersonate someone wise or in possession of some marketable truth: it’s a function of insecurity, of fear. If we don’t assume some sort of expertise, why, exactly, should anyone bother reading us, let alone buy our books or invite us to appear on “Fresh Air”? The one thing no editorialist or commentator in any media is ever supposed to say is I don’t know: that they’re too ignorant about the science of climate change to have an informed opinion... To admit to ignorance, uncertainty or ambivalence is to cede your place on the masthead, your slot on the program, and allow all the coveted eyeballs to turn instead to the next hack who’s more than happy to sell them all the answers.

...
I have no pretensions to any special knowledge, let alone anything like wisdom; I am just some guy, a PERSON IN WORLD looking around and noticing things and saying what I think. If what I say doesn’t reflect your own experience, it’s possible that it isn’t about you. It’s also possible that something that’s not About You might still be of some interest or use. There is even some remote possibility that I am oversimplifying, missing something obvious, or just speaking ex rectum.
我觉得人类就是有个无法满足的愿望:给我一个肯定的答案,告诉我怎样做才对。可是没有肯定的答案肿么办?不行,没有也得造出个肯定的答案。我们都渴望一个充满了正确答案的世界,而世界却不肯满足我们的愿望。

科学的进步,给出了一个又一个的答案:感冒是病毒造成,病毒入侵身体一般可被自身的免疫系统消灭;地球绕着太阳转,是因为宇宙万物皆有引力,一个公式即可搞定。自然科学更加深了“肯定的答案是有的,只是你还没找到”的误解,于是大家到处去找,仿佛人生的一切都可以用一个公式搞定 ...

年轻的时候我是多么自信地相信万物皆有道理这一套,教育亦不停强调真理的普遍性。年纪越大,不得不,被迫,dragged kicking and screaming,只好承认,大多数的事情不是搞物理研究。自己没答案,专家也未必有,也许答案根本不存在。听上去很虚无主义。难怪人都说越老越虚无呢,原来这才是自然规律。
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tiffany
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Re: [zz] Tim Kreider: 问专家谁是专家

Post by tiffany » 2013-11-30 23:31

物理研究?话说有个著名的测不准定律哎,就是说物质小到一定的地方不可能同时准确的测出来该物质的质量和速度。有一批物理学家,据说,为此自杀了。

西门赶紧出来进行千字解释!
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tiffany
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Re: [zz] Tim Kreider: 问专家谁是专家

Post by tiffany » 2013-11-30 23:35

其实我觉得普通群众对科学有个误会就是以为科学结论是适用于所有条件的。做过实验的人都知道,实验条件太重要了,这个温度差两三度那是很重要的一个区别。其实真正严谨的说法都是在什么什么条件下,做出来一个实验是什么什么结果;然后又若干别的实验,推翻了别的可能性,所以我们认为在我们这个条件下,观察到这个现象是这个原因。

不过从实验科学到医学,那就是理科跟工科的区别了。
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Jun
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Re: [zz] Tim Kreider: 问专家谁是专家

Post by Jun » 2013-12-01 0:01

比科学更影响深远的是“有耕耘必有收获”和“一分耕耘一分收获”的因果信念。当然,没有耕耘多半没有收获,除非你住在极其富饶的地方,顺手摘果捉鱼;但是并没有一个保证你的劳动必有相应收获的上帝存在,这是大家都不愿意承认的现实。克己复礼的蚂蚁们未必能得到长远的报酬,挥霍今宵的蝗虫亦未必受到冻饿的惩罚。我们对于因果的信仰是难以撼动的,因为我们的意识太需要它,而不是因为它有什么必然性。
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simonsun
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Re: [zz] Tim Kreider: 问专家谁是专家

Post by simonsun » 2013-12-01 3:39

tiffany wrote:物理研究?话说有个著名的测不准定律哎,就是说物质小到一定的地方不可能同时准确的测出来该物质的质量和速度。有一批物理学家,据说,为此自杀了。

西门赶紧出来进行千字解释!
要我解释啥?你大学物理不及格! :mrgreen:

二十世纪前半叶真是神奇的年代,出了那么多天才。
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camellia
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Re: [zz] Tim Kreider: 问专家谁是专家

Post by camellia » 2013-12-01 12:47

simonsun wrote: 要我解释啥?你大学物理不及格! :mrgreen:
工科生理直气壮的说:大学没学物理 :dog001:

Jun
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Re: [zz] Tim Kreider: 问专家谁是专家

Post by Jun » 2013-12-01 14:22

Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle. The certainty can be meaured only if the product of velocity, mass, and location is larger than a constant ... Says someone who studied physics in college (not me).
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Knowing
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Re: [zz] Tim Kreider: 问专家谁是专家

Post by Knowing » 2013-12-02 3:18

我们软件工程师都知道软件测不准定理,做出来不对的东西肯定不转,做出来对的东西...它有可能也不转。这就是著名的The IT Crowd solution :
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sukaou
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Re: [zz] Tim Kreider: 问专家谁是专家

Post by sukaou » 2013-12-02 21:11

所以,我现在特爱跟初二的儿子一起做数学题,它有正确答案!而且是唯一的!真是爽歪歪。

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