Page 1 of 1
[zz] More on High Frequency Trading
Posted: 2014-04-01 20:38
by Jun
Michael Lewis 写了一本关于 HFT 的书,今天在新鲜空气上访谈。我郑重劝告您把整个节目听完,即使并不全懂也没关系。
http://www.npr.org/2014/04/01/297686724 ... difference
On A 'Rigged' Wall Street, Milliseconds Make All The Difference
April 01, 2014 1:28 PM
The stock market is rigged," Michael Lewis tells Fresh Air's Terry Gross. "It's rigged for the benefit for really a handful of insiders. It's rigged to ... maximize the take of Wall Street, of banks, the exchanges and the high-frequency traders at the expense of ordinary investors."
Lewis is the author of several books about the world of finance, including Liar's Poker and The Big Short. His new book Flash Boys is about the form of computerized transactions known as high-frequency trading, in which the fastest computers with the highest connection speeds get the information first, and make the trade before anyone else can. A millisecond — even a nanosecond — can make all the difference between how much money is made or lost on any transaction.
You'd be surprised to hear what investment banks do to get that nanosecond edge, and how they often use it in ways Lewis describes as predatory. The victims range from some investment houses to individual investors. Lewis says high-frequency trades can end up hurting the returns on your retirement accounts. The FBI, Wall Street regulators and New York's attorney general are investigating high-frequency trading, and whether it has created an uneven playing field.
"There's a decline of trust in the marketplace because it's not as trustworthy," Lewis says. "And if it's not as trustworthy then the whole economy suffers. Trust is the grease that keeps the system working."
感谢科技进步,统治阶级奴役压榨被统治阶级的手段不断更新不断提高效率。One of these days the mansion of capitalism will crash on our heads yet again, and again, and again. Good luck suckers. May we escape with our heads unsmashed. 人类社会的唯一希望就是统治阶级人数别涨得太多,这样继续刮下去还能维持。统治阶层太拥挤,那点金字塔便会轰然倒塌,大家一起完蛋。
我现在越来越佩服 Douglas Rushkoff 了,他竟然能三言两语就把这么复杂的事儿说得我都能懂,这事儿多复杂呢?连 Michael Lewis 都说这事儿很复杂,不好懂。有些人的脑子也不知是怎么长的 ... 他那书我还是没看完,太玄了,但是里面50%-60%那些我能看懂的内容,跟我目前所知的事情是吻合的,说明他不是在瞎扯忽悠。
注意 Lewis 写的书里的主角是个加拿大人,让我更喜欢加拿大了。
Re: [zz] More on High Frequency Trading
Posted: 2014-04-02 6:40
by Knowing
这个。。。其他行业的事情看起来总是很复杂。。。
我听了一下新鲜空气,如果你想让人把HFT简单的解释给你听,michael lewis 的书应该比Douglas Rushkoff 靠谱。Douglas Rushkoff 把一堆市面上流行的信息一鳞半爪混起来张冠李带,写出来的不是quant fund 也不是HFT。michael lewis 信息来源比较业内。
that said, michael lewis 义愤谴责HFT 的那些话都很不靠谱,简直是这个新市场IEX的小广告,大家随便听听也无所谓,不要相信跑到IEX上买卖股票是躲避被HFT剪羊毛的唯一天堂。刀无两头利,你要吸引交易对手公开交易意图,就会有人来占便宜:以前是穿吊带裤的股票经纪,现在是抽象的电脑模型。要不泄露交易意图,可以去dark pool 之类只准大孩子玩的地方,默默坐在房间里,直到有另一个人进门,双方握手直接做买卖, 等待其间股票价格如何变动风险自负。
另外我要说,人把已经有的便利通通take for granted 很正常,可以理解。但是,这并不说明是对的。只做过小单交易甚至没有做过交易的人总觉得既然现在股票报价是十块八毛五,我就应该能用十块八毛五买到或者卖掉股票。市场是市场,任何大的交易单下去都会移动市场,这个东西叫slippage. 没有HFT 之前存在了很多年,明天就把HFT取消也会存在。任何说下了单怎么市场就朝对我不利的方向移动的所谓业内人士不是假天真就是真傻。哦,或者从来没亲自做过交易执行这一块。画红线的专家不知道吹红气球需要什么技巧,也许觉得吹个气球有什么的捎手不就干了么。要给他个需要拉着坐人篮子上天的大热气球,他一样会傻眼的。
Re: [zz] More on High Frequency Trading
Posted: 2014-04-02 7:13
by Jun
我是这么看的。固然雁过拔跟毛是古已有之的现象,htf 的 skimming 只是华尔街的拔毛传统的新手段,但是,拔毛的人越来越多多,飞过一只雁都给撕光了,这拔毛活动还能维持下去么?还是我们要信仰科技进步能发明出新的拔毛技术,撕光了这一群,还有无穷的下一群换个办法再撕一阵?
从房屋次贷开始, Lewis对华尔街的批判就是,赚钱的人不创造价值,只是在创造价值的人头上刮。好吧,这也不是新鲜事儿,要不然怎么会有剥削这个词呢?即使是我做的工作也很难讲全部或者大半是直接创造价值,我只不过是把已经创造出来的肉块绞碎,并未造出新肉,很难算作创造价值,我这行刮的是人民怕死而交出来的利润。不过,如果全社会一大半的人都靠刮赚钱,有没有那么多价值够社会大半刮的, eventually? 就好像消费者经济到头来消费者手里的财富太少,消费不动了,怎么推呢?价值全靠机器人创造么?
Re: [zz] More on High Frequency Trading
Posted: 2014-04-02 7:37
by Knowing
嗯,赚钱的人不创造价值,只是在创造价值的人头上刮,这事情听上去是不太好。不过呢,这么刮的人并不是很多--HFT本身来说是个只用冠军没有亚军的游戏,利润空间是有限的,能赚到很多钱的公司也有限。你也看到了,入门门槛高,硬件软件技术投入大,好多想挤进来分一杯羹半路就被踩死了。不用担心社会一大半的人都靠这个赚钱。往好的方面想,这种军备竞赛至少推动了网络基建和电脑硬件R&D嘛。
Re: [zz] More on High Frequency Trading
Posted: 2014-04-02 7:41
by tiffany
哎,其实我都觉得这些都是有钱人的游戏。象我们仨瓜俩枣数着发工资的日子花钱的人,根本都没资格去搞那事儿。
换句话说,jun讲雁过拔毛,我们就是被拔的大雁啊!
Re: [zz] More on High Frequency Trading
Posted: 2014-04-02 8:49
by Jun
别人我不清楚,光说我自己,也真不好意思说是创造价值的大雁,不过没那么大本事去拔别人的毛而已。
别说这些都是跟我们没关系。被拔毛的是投资基金,包括 mutual funds 和银行,我们小人物都有钱间接地放在里面。他们丢钱,羊毛从哪里出来?当然,one could argue,你们这些羊,不是甲来刮层毛就是乙来刮层毛,不是地主奴隶主,就是华尔街,难道还能指望自己能保存自己长出的毛么?只能怪自己,创造出的剩余价值没地方放,只好拿出来让别人刮喽。
看小K 解释了之后觉得安全多了,HFT 不会把整个社会搞垮,至多象 housing bubble 那样再来一遍而已。反过来看呢,HFT 即使被禁止取缔,以后还会有各种拔毛的方法被发明出来,想想也没什么安全感,还是跟以前一样。
Re: [zz] More on High Frequency Trading
Posted: 2014-04-02 9:08
by Knowing
你可以畅开了花钱,不要存退休金,或者到新西兰买个农场退休。
说实在的HFT 利润最丰厚的时期过去了,现在都是互相剃羊毛,你们也不要太紧张了。
Re: [zz] More on High Frequency Trading
Posted: 2014-04-02 9:13
by Jun
我打算敞开了花钱!
另外我还打算少工作,少创造剩余价值。真的,不是开玩笑。
Re: [zz] More on High Frequency Trading
Posted: 2014-04-02 9:23
by Knowing
Re: [zz] More on High Frequency Trading
Posted: 2014-04-02 9:27
by Jun
当然另一个选择是把手里的钱直接投资在下一代身上,然后老了让他们养,收回投资。不过这个风险(在现代社会)太大了。
我打算多多花在去纽约和伦敦看戏上面。
Re: [zz] More on High Frequency Trading
Posted: 2014-04-02 10:36
by Knowing
别逗了,养孩子完全是制造对钱的需要。
Re: [zz] More on High Frequency Trading
Posted: 2014-04-02 10:47
by Jun
那是因为现代社会不许从儿女身上榨取价值!过去养儿子是为了增加劳动力,养女儿是为了卖个好价钱,只有最近几十年才变的。
Re: [zz] More on High Frequency Trading
Posted: 2014-04-02 12:20
by qinger
我看了你们的讨论第一个感觉就是,应该买投资房的。
Re: [zz] More on High Frequency Trading
Posted: 2014-04-02 12:22
by 豪情
少生孩子多种树(买房)。
从社会来说还是需要新劳动力的。除了社保,各种投资也需要人接盘。
Re: [zz] More on High Frequency Trading
Posted: 2014-04-02 13:10
by dropby
我觉得能纯粹为享受孩子而养孩子是社会的进步,乐观地说。
Re: [zz] More on High Frequency Trading
Posted: 2014-04-02 14:45
by Jun
哈哈哈,买房买地是保财产的最后一招,这种想法太中国了。这条小农对策早就被华尔街玩坏了。
Re: [zz] More on High Frequency Trading
Posted: 2014-04-02 15:22
by Jun
豪情 wrote:少生孩子多种树(买房)。
那是为了致富。现在说的不就是劳动人民努力致富,统治阶级在你们/我们创造的价值上刮一刮就肥了。你越致富他越肥。小康人家富了之后财产/剩余价值没地方储藏,就在存钱的过程中以各种方式被刮了。所以要那么富干什么呢?全部花掉好了,有儿女的花在儿女身上,没儿女的花在自己身上。
从社会来说还是需要新劳动力的。除了社保,各种投资也需要人接盘。
社保是只有百来年历史的奢侈品。德国宰相俾斯麦发明社保的时候,规定享受年龄65岁,人均年龄才67岁,大多数人根本享受不到什么。那才是社保初衷。现在社会,社保就是个税,工作的人交税养着退休的人。对了退休也是个现代奢侈品。
所以说话题又绕回了 a growth economy。且不管根源是不是放贷收利息,现在这个社会的经济基础就是要不停地涨,扩张,增加,否则无法维持。关于 the global economy 到底有多少 growth potential,还有多少余地可扩张,这话题 N 多人在研究和讨论,无定论,光是 Charlie Rose 随机访谈我就看见过好几个人提起了,我以前也贴过链接的。过去几十年的生产和市场之扩张少不了依靠人口飞涨。有个谁在 Charlie Rose 上说的,我算过了,全球的人口和消费力,未来N年,怎么算也涨不了每年3%,美联储给经济增长订下的目标是3%增长率,满打满算也不可能。
其实 growth 压力已经很明显了,过去十多年美联储的利息都是零。过去我们制造出的剩余价值,存到银行里,就有利息拿。现在没利息拿了,说明在银行的背后,在经济体系的背后,大家都膨胀无路,利息难道从树上长出来?连种树的土地都没了。我看好殖民火星。
Re: [zz] More on High Frequency Trading
Posted: 2014-04-03 5:19
by Knowing
增长的区域不一样,我们现在人很难想象将来。几千年前天天劳作打猎还不能果腹的古人也无法想象现在有人吃饱不是问题天天坐家里打电子游戏。也没法理解为什么有人要脚下绑刀在冰上转来转去还引以为乐,还有更疯狂的人冒险坐着铁鸟大老远去看别人在冰上转,还引以为乐!
现在看的见的growth 就很多啊,生物科学那么多没被征服的区域,没准什么为了搞HFT搞出来的并行硬件技术改改就用到算分子制药上了什么的。美苏当年军备竞赛星球大战后来不就弄出了AT&T。。退一万步说,现在买卖股票方便,是股市电子化带来的便利。如果说现在市场rigged, 那么电子化交易出现前的市场简直就是old boys club. 这个说起来又是很长的话题也没人感兴趣.
Re: [zz] More on High Frequency Trading
Posted: 2014-04-03 7:04
by Jun
Knowing wrote:增长的区域不一样,我们现在人很难想象将来。几千年前天天劳作打猎还不能果腹的古人也无法想象现在有人吃饱不是问题天天坐家里打电子游戏。也没法理解为什么有人要脚下绑刀在冰上转来转去还引以为乐,还有更疯狂的人冒险坐着铁鸟大老远去看别人在冰上转,还引以为乐!
现在看的见的growth 就很多啊,生物科学那么多没被征服的区域,没准什么为了搞HFT搞出来的并行硬件技术改改就用到算分子制药上了什么的。美苏当年军备竞赛星球大战后来不就弄出了AT&T。。退一万步说,现在买卖股票方便,是股市电子化带来的便利。如果说现在市场rigged, 那么电子化交易出现前的市场简直就是old boys club. 这个说起来又是很长的话题也没人感兴趣.

乐观主义。
不过我还是打算少工作多享乐。为 growth society 做贡献就指望别人了。我那点儿看戏的贡献真是很微小。
BTW 我哥哥说他小时候在东北就曾经把什么什么(我想说树棍儿但又觉得不对)绑在鞋上溜冰,还有小朋友掉进河里淹死的事件。在某瑞典儿童小说里也读过小朋友在冻硬的河上溜冰一路溜到奶奶家,吃了甜饼再溜回来。可见溜冰一直都被人爱好。
Re: [zz] More on High Frequency Trading
Posted: 2014-04-03 8:09
by Knowing
乐观的当蚂蚁, 悲观的当蝴蝶,这不科学...
Re: [zz] More on High Frequency Trading
Posted: 2014-04-03 8:10
by tiffany
scientifically speaking, there is no evidence that insects are capable of optimism or pessimism

Re: [zz] More on High Frequency Trading
Posted: 2014-04-04 10:27
by Jun
更多关于HFT的东西:
http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalr ... g-hft.html
我看限制 HFT 也没什么可怕的后果。说得好像 "small investors" 多么正义,多么该保护;institutional investors 多么坏,活该被宰,似的。其实也未必。Small investors 不就是 day traders 嘛,我们劳动阶级的钱都放在 institutions 里面,才没工夫 day trade,institutional investors 好处多点儿,day traders 吃点亏,也没什么不好。
Re: [zz] More on High Frequency Trading
Posted: 2014-04-06 5:35
by Knowing
我简单看了眼结论,跟大家想的一样,transaction tax 可以有效限制HFT market maker 的活跃度。限制后流通性降低,交易成本变高。
The effect , as measured by a group of Canadian academics, was swift and startling. The number of messages sent to the Toronto Stock Exchange dropped by 30 percent, and the bid-ask spread rose by 9 percent, an indicator of lower liquidity and higher transaction costs.
bid-ask spread rose by 9 percent, market maker 的活跃度降低了,利润率却变高了.这对大小交易者都是个坏事,不知道该文怎么得出对大投资者没有坏影响的结论。
Re: [zz] More on High Frequency Trading
Posted: 2014-04-08 1:11
by Knowing
Reading Michael Lewis new book <Flash Boys>. He is as good as ever at storytelling, but really?
Reading the following 2 paragraphs in the book and tell me you don't see anything wrong with what he is doing
A big investor called Brad and said he wanted to sell 5 million shares of Solectron. The public stock markets—the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Nasdaq—showed the current market. Say it was 3.70–3.75, which is to say you could sell Solectron for $3.70 a share or buy it for $3.75. The problem was that, at those prices, only a million shares were bid for and offered. The big investor who wished to sell 5 million shares of Solectron called Brad because he wanted Brad to take the risk on the other 4 million shares. And so Brad bought the shares at $3.65, slightly below the price quoted in the public markets. But when he turned to the public markets—the markets on his trading screens—the share price instantly moved. Almost as if the market had read his mind. Instead of selling a million shares at $3.70, as he’d assumed he could do, he sold a few hundred thousand and trigged a minicollapse in the price of Solectron. It was as if someone knew what he was trying to do and was reacting to his desire to sell before he had fully expressed it. By the time he was done selling all 5 million shares, at prices far below $3.70, he had lost a small fortune.
Let me put this simply: This RBC guy Brad is not a investor. He is a flipper himself and charge the investeor 1.3%, a total of $250k (0.05* 5 million) as transaction cost for doing what? Hitting a button to sell sth on the market? this is not 'slightly below market', btw, this is a insanely high charge IMHO. no no no no no, he will tell you he has to
'TAKE RISK' for the investors in case the price fluctuated between investor sells it to him and he unloads it on to market.
Guess what? when he is actually unloading stocks using computers, he encounters other computers. Other computers that are smarter than his computer. Well, there is always the risk, isn't there?
If that was the case, he asked them, why did the market in any given stock dry up only when he was trying to trade in it? To make his point, he asked the developers to stand behind him and watch while he traded. “I’d say, ‘Watch closely. I am about to buy one hundred thousand shares of AMD. I am willing to pay forty-eight dollars a share. There are currently one hundred thousand shares of AMD being offered at forty-eight dollars a share—ten thousand on BATS, thirty-five thousand on the New York Stock Exchange, thirty thousand on Nasdaq, and twenty-five thousand on Direct Edge.’ You could see it all on the screens. We’d all sit there and stare at the screen and I’d have my finger over the Enter button. I’d count out loud to five . . .
“ ‘One . . .
“ ‘Two. . . . See, nothing’s happened.
“ ‘Three. . . . Offers are still there at forty-eight . . .
“ ‘Four. . . . Still no movement.
“ ‘Five.’ Then I’d hit the Enter button and—boom!—all hell would break loose. The offerings would all disappear, and the stock would pop higher.”
At which point he turned to the guys standing behind him and said, “You see, I’m the event. I am the news.”
Really??? Really??? in 2007???? Someone just dumped 100k shares order (worth about half million dollars) into market like that, without vwap algor, without ice-berg order, without nothing???? And he did not expect to be taken advantage of???? I am beyond disbelief.
Ok, at this point, I have to say, I am glad Michael Lewis wrote this book. He described the group of people losing their job to computers -- stock brokers. Who whine about their fat profit margin eaten up by computers.
Re: [zz] More on High Frequency Trading
Posted: 2014-04-08 8:21
by Jun
被小K 这么一说我也觉得 HFT 没那么可怕了,就是一个给软件工程师和数学家创造工作机会的领域。
BTW,Michael Lewis 把它说得很可怕,但是 Douglas Rushkoff 倒是没。
Re: [zz] More on High Frequency Trading
Posted: 2014-04-08 14:40
by Knowing
Ruskoff 讲的不是严格意义上的 HFT, 他不太懂这里面的分类,把quant fund, algorithm trading, HFT 的一些道听途说混一起了。这里面只有HFT 名声比较坏。
我边看flash boys 边有看小白穿越文的感觉。。。他这个都不知道,那个不知道,还控诉各大exchange 不告诉他这里面东西怎么转。这些东西都是有文档的有公开数据的呀大哥。还每月烧一万块钱瞎摸规律美其名曰作实验?

我好替加拿大银行心疼!
Re: [zz] More on High Frequency Trading
Posted: 2014-04-08 14:45
by Jun
为什么HFT名声比较坏?我赶紧上来问。
Re: [zz] More on High Frequency Trading
Posted: 2014-04-08 15:02
by dropby
听起来和崔永元自费一百万去美国调查转基因有一拼。

Re: [zz] More on High Frequency Trading
Posted: 2014-04-08 15:02
by Knowing
可能因为其它的策略一般人理解不了,HFT 看上去比较好懂。大部分Quant fund 中长期都是统计什么的,一般人看一眼就晕了,觉得好科学,最多怀疑它赚不到钱或者长期赚不到钱。HFT 有些策略基本是你太蠢了我替天行道也要占你的便宜这种逻辑,长得一脸损人利己的确不太招人喜欢。。。不过brad 这个加拿大来的孩子的确是看着太糟心,打个比方就是全世界送快递的都开上汽车了,他还靠骑自行车替走路的客户送快件,到目的地发现怎么回回都落在其它公司后面,一口咬定这些公司都是作弊抢跑的。。。。。
Re: [zz] More on High Frequency Trading
Posted: 2014-04-08 15:17
by Jun
HFT 赚钱的策略确实比较好懂,离得近!这大家都能懂。
Re: [zz] More on High Frequency Trading
Posted: 2014-04-09 2:40
by Knowing
话说回来作为一本小说还是很好看的。Michael Lewis 自己的知识不多,写书的时候基本是channel other people's opinion , 但他提炼能力非常强,能基本不走型的把乏味的人浓缩到有趣,我非常真是欣赏佩服他讲故事的能力。我就没有!哎笑死了,他描述一个HFT的队伍(四个俄国讷德和一个中国讷德),带头的俄国讷德在讨论完什么计算问题后鄙视的说:'ho ho ho, that's what the Americans called moth' (math 发音成moth)哈哈哈,怎么这么活灵活现哪。
Re: [zz] More on High Frequency Trading
Posted: 2014-04-09 8:30
by Jun
是啊,在 Liar's Poker 第一章里他描写一个头头,不就是卖个 junk bond 么?写得跌宕起伏,悬念抓人,象 thriller 一样。佩服死了。
Re: [zz] More on High Frequency Trading
Posted: 2014-04-10 6:08
by Knowing
我又看了几章,难怪BATS 的头William O'Brien 在CNBC 上跟Brad Katsuyama 死掐。书里说了很多BATS的坏话,William O'Brien 气死了。
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101544772
Re: [zz] More on High Frequency Trading
Posted: 2014-04-11 23:19
by vivi
小K你懂这么多,你买不买股票的?
Re: [zz] More on High Frequency Trading
Posted: 2014-04-12 0:48
by Knowing
我懂得不多,只是正好对电子交易这部分比较熟。在金融业工作,个人买卖股票限制很多,所以投资都是passive 的。千万别问我那只股票会涨

我真的不知道。
Re: [zz] More on High Frequency Trading
Posted: 2014-04-13 11:32
by vivi
我没有那个精力和体力搞股票,只是好奇。我在的一个妈妈微信组里面好多人每天打了鸡血似的研究分析股票好像股票市场真有啥科学根据似的。还说买买提上有神人指点人民买卖,特准,因为神人已经发的买了N个房子啥的。我想这种神人是不是就靠玩儿这种小股民赚钱呐。我不是专家,但最朴实的生意道理难道不是低买高卖吗?最奇怪的是她们大部分时间做的都是相反的,追上升的,抛跌价的。
Re: [zz] More on High Frequency Trading
Posted: 2014-04-13 11:40
by Knowing
追高买追低卖也是有名堂的,叫trend following . 这个的确是有人能赚到钱的。通过制造trend 抢在trend 前面买卖,也能赚到钱。小赌怡情,有闲有钱的太太们总得干点什么。挺好的。

Re: [zz] More on High Frequency Trading
Posted: 2014-05-17 9:24
by Knowing
flash boys 读完以后,看到很多批评都推荐dark pools by Scott Peterson, 就买了本接着读。这本写的比flash boys 翔实全面多了,分析批评Hft 也在理而深入。如果谁有兴趣可以读一读。比较重要一点批评是现在的HFT 虽然实际取代以前Market maker 的地位,减少了腐败,提供更多流动性,spread看上去变很小,只要原来十分之一百分之一,但是有研究说明因为每笔交易数量变小,一张同样的单子的slippage 累计比起来没有缩小一两个数量级,只是省一半甚至一半都不到。另外因为HFT不是正式market maker 没有承诺任何时候都得待在市场里,容易产生集体恐慌撤离,crash 发生频率提高了。另外我对dark pool 的印象还停留在七八年前头几家刚出现的时候,那时候有很多控制手段防止HFT钓鱼,保证都是institutional investor, 现在貌似各个黑池为了拉流通性都允许HFT进来了。不过回想了一下,那几个早期黑池的确成交率不高,每天一堆十几二十个单进去,能成交三四个就不错了。