恶人谷

大选结果让我们大跌眼镜之余，也是第一次意识到美国这个社会性别歧视有多厉害。
但是自动低估女人几乎是所有人的通病，无论左右无论媒体还是百姓。
当一男一女两个陌生面孔登台，无论是戏剧，比如“纸牌屋”，还是现实，比如川普竞选；所有人都会自动把聚焦光打在那个男人脸上，有意识无意识的轻视那个女人。

刚开始看纸牌屋这剧的时候，Francis毫不费力把持住大家的想象力。Claire几乎自动被所有人轻视。所以编剧才会有后面的峰回路转，大跌眼镜的戏好唱。

川普这出大戏里面，谁是Claire呢？

很有可能是康为。

1。白宫到底谁做主？
读完罗马共和国后期的几本书后，有了罗马帝国的两个Triumvirate （三人执政）阶段的先例在前，我一直在等着看到川普团队的内斗浮出水面好知道现代的Triumvirate是哪些人。

前几天爆出来的Bannon, Kushner and Priebus三人组间围绕总统令的实施而出现的矛盾让我以为终于看到了我在等待的内斗雏形. 媒体也基本上把所有的怨恨都发泄到了Bannon身上。

Or, is Bannon really it?

2. 副检察长 solicitor general
昨天第九巡回法庭的判决出来之后，推特上一片振奋。大家忙着分析法官们的判词，等着看川普的笑话。川普也不负众望，立刻发了让人爆笑的”SEE YOU IN COURT＂的推，把大家等着看好戏的胃口都吊了起来。反川阵营18个月来终于出了一口气，幸灾乐祸的等着川普直接闹上高庭。

一片欢呼声中，我看到两个律师推友一问一答的说到司法部的副检察长（solicitor general)人选好像还没有定吧？我才知道真的闹到高庭需要副检察长代表政府上庭。而司法部长Sessions好不容易在议院杀出一条血路得以拿到任命。接下来就要定第二把手的人选了。这次第九巡回法庭政府败诉有不少原因是政府这边没有律师肯接这个烫手山芋，本来执笔的主要律师纷纷找借口不上庭，开庭前几小时落到倒霉的Flentje身上。推特上的律师们都对他非常同情。因为可能没有别人帮他准备。

然后就看到被淹没在欢呼声中一条推“Potential solicitor general pick withdraws name”. 点进去一看好奇心大起。原来副检察长的人选有两个：

• - Chuck Cooper: 司法部长Jeff Session的老部下兼心腹，中奖呼声一直最高。这次突然主动退出的却是这一位。大家都很惊讶
  - George Conway: Kellyanne Conway的老公！参与过Paula Jones状告克林顿的案子。是亚洲人。

现在Cooper突然退出，那么George Conway几乎是司法部最有可能的副检察长了。

3。被低估的女人－康为
本来对康为毫无兴趣。但是副检察长人选这个巧合让我对她有了兴趣。稍微搜索了一下简直是惊讶一个接着一个。

一。与她故意在媒体面前表现出来的样子（一副胡言乱语好像没什么头脑的金发花瓶女，媒体上也报道过大家都不知道她到底做些什么）完全不同的是她其实非常聪明一路都是学霸。从Trinity College到牛津到乔治华盛顿大学的法学位。都是最高荣誉毕业。她自己也过了DC的Bar。曾经做过执照律师。

二。她和Bannon在同一天被川普雇来做他的竞选团队。川普想雇的是Bannon. 但是Bannon开出条件之一就是康为要一起来。康为的两届前任都被川普女婿踢出去了。但是康为的位子做的稳稳的。而且变成了从竞选队伍到白宫里唯一可以跟川普说”不“的人。

三。康为退出律师界开始做自己的polling firm后，专长是帮助政客增加女性选票。她的老客户包括副总统Mike Pence.

四。康为和Bannon同属一个叫CNP(concil of national policy)的神秘极右组织。里面的成员非富既贵。曾经任CNP两届President的包括 Richard DeVos (Betsy DeVos的公公）。网上流出来2014年这个组织的名单里面，康为是Exec Community的一员，Bannon是一般成员。名单很长，我对DC的政界不熟，知情人应该可以发现更多和现任总统内阁的联系。
这个组织的网站我就看了一眼首页就给吓出来了。简直是Handmaid’s Tale的现实版。而且跟川普内阁人选宗旨非常合拍，就是把所有政府部门都给大放血，急剧缩小政府体积。把社会规范退回到美国建国时Judeo-Christian的情景，扩军。

如果画一幅关系图的话，和川普内阁的各种人员交集最多的有可能就是康为了。Bannon, Pence, DeVos, George Conway. 今天又爆出来Tillerson的二把手人选Elliott Abrams 也被川普否决了。跟副检察长的人选退出何其相似啊！就是所有内阁人选都不被允许建立自己的权力集团。等着看接下来爆出来新的人选是谁，不知道会跟康为/Bannon有联系呢还是跟川皇的女婿*？http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/10/politics/ ... index.html

本来以为川普会急吼吼的把移民总统令推到高庭。昨晚做完这些康为功课后就知道不会的。律师出身的康为有办法说服川普不走这条必败之路。今早起来看到新闻果然。

再有就是康为在媒体上面胡说八道，媒体们都很郁闷不知道她这种自杀一样的表演是为哪般。现在知道了，在狐狸台，她的观众是川粉。在CNN, MSNBC, 她的观众只有一个，川普。其他人都不重要。所以她才会有两套那么不同的表演方式。她只是要通过CNN/MSNBC 电视表演来巩固自己在川皇心中的地位。好能继续让川皇在重要的时候听话。

如果川普被弹劾，她和Bannon还有Pence。Pence是她亲选，所以可以在她和Bannon掌控之中，他们的蓝图可以继续。双保险。

昨天翻有关康为老公的新闻的时候看到她的一句话，大意说老公如果做了副检察长就是第一位亚裔做到这个位子；否则的话他也可以去当法官。当时看得我心里戈登一下。这是看中哪个联邦法官的空缺了？

现在还没有找到的是她和Bannon是什么时候成为战友的。。。

After this little research, it is amusing to watch the media laughing Conway off now as they did Trump 18 months ago...

纽约客这篇profile跟其他纽约客的profile比要浅显很多。不知道是作者不重视还是康为藏得太深。但是信息比其他网上的关于她的要实在有趣的多了。尤其是她告诫川普不许再说”选不上我可以过得很好“那种话那一段。
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/ ... chinations

Vanity fair 这篇也不错
http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/02/ ... -civil-war

“Kellyanne is Reince’s fiercest critic,” the Trump insider told me. (A spokesperson for the White House denied this.) “Bannon understands the base better than anyone, but nobody understands how to expand the base better than Kellyanne. Jared Kushner is a very smart guy, but he’s a liberal Democrat, and I’m not sure he understands who our constituency are.” Conway, as the former senior campaign aide put it, has a unique skill: “Kellyanne is a knife fighter with words.”

4。金主Mercer (2/12/2017)
下面回复里有两篇跟这一节有关的文章
－ 关于Cambridge Analitica的文章。一个只帮助美国右派的大数据公司
－ 俄国人Kasparov的访谈，长期的反普金的俄国象棋大师。他提到两个点我觉得有意思，1）到底是谁跟川普提名Tillerson做国务卿的。2）川普权力里面跟俄国有瓜葛的除了Flynn, Tillerson, 还有Wilbur Ross (Secretary of Commerce ）

然后我就读了一堆有关川普金主Mercer的文章。哇塞，太有趣了。最有料的大概是这一篇。和这篇。
总结如下

• － 老Mercer是个计算机科学家，72年就拿到phd去了IBM.研究主题是用计算机来进行语言翻译。九十年代去了现在的Hedge Fund Firm --Renaissance Technologies. 之前只是中产，加入这家公司后开始富可敌国。跟其他同行不同，老Mercer政治理念一直很浓。反政府。强调自由贸易的重要。

• － 老Mercer三个女儿，其中 二女儿Rebebah (a.k.a. Bekah)是现在Mercer家族的各种Super PAC 的主导人。

• － 2010年以来Mercer先后帮助过近100GOP候选人，遍布美国。

• － Mercer 投资项目除了帮助过Cruz和川皇的PAC之外，还包括Breitbart, Cambridge Analitica, Glittering Steel （Bannon的电影公司？），Goldwater Institute, Cato Institute, the Federalist Society, the Heritage Foundation, the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research, Reclaim New York, The Government Accountability Institute

• － 老少Mercer都是Ayn Rand的信徒，痛恨Dodd-Frank. 痛恨Clinton, 痛恨McCain (因为McCain 曾经调查过Renaissance Technologies, 说他们靠偷税赚钱，他们的头牌fund年增长率高达35% 据说都靠把短期盈利当长期来交税）

• － Bekah和川皇女儿女婿很要好，Bannon和康为都是Bekah推荐给川皇的。据说川皇内阁里被Bekah推荐进去的还有Sessions, Flynn, 和Wilbur Ross. 不过她推荐的国务卿人选是John Bolton. 不是Tillerson

• － watchdog group 一直在大叫要调查Mercer, Bannon, 康为和川皇，因为按照2010高庭的判决，PAC虽然可以无限制捐钱支持候选人，但是PAC不能跟候选人的竞选有直接关联。而Bannon和康为加入川普竞选团队后实际上一直是靠PAC付他们工资，康为和Bannon的公司都直接接到Merver PAC的投资。

我觉得最好玩的是俄国这条线。那边Kasparov刚说Ross和Flynn都和俄国不清不楚，这边就说这两人都是Bekah塞给川皇的。连写Cambridge Analitica那文都说这公司的背后跟很多国家的选举都有关联，不仅仅是美国。这边就说这公司是Bannon和Mercer一手办起来的。

还有这个神秘的Tillerson提名。网上纷纷传说是Bob Gates（以前的CIA頭頭） 跟川普提的他。所以Kasparov才怀疑基辛格吧？

呼应一下文章开头提到的罗马共和国后期第一个Triumvirate （三人执政），当时那三个人是庞贝（名声最大，最受人民爱戴的大将军，虚荣无比），Crassus（当时罗马第一大富翁大金主，各种幕后主要黑手的金钱都是他出的），凯撒（开始只是出谋划策的军师，主要因为自己没有名声。但是超级聪明。后来去法德英那边的欧洲打了好多年的仗，证明自己是超级将军，名声开始盖过庞贝。。。）。我一开始就说川皇最像庞贝，虽然没有庞贝的才华，但是有庞贝的名声。现在看来Mercer就是今天的Crassus. 还没搞清楚凯撒是谁...

谁还需要看电视剧啊！这么精彩的剧情。。。什么悬疑科幻侦探政治统统包括了。。。

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* 果然二把手及其一下都归Bekah " Rebekah Mercer, a Heritage board member and major pro-Trump donor, is on the transition team’s 16-member executive committee, and a transition team source said she is working with Heritage to recruit appointees for positions at the undersecretary level and below…." http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/20 ... ition.html

5. "Follow the Money" （2／25／2017）
最近因为Milo和CPAC, Mercer 开始进入主流视野，主要因为Breitbart这条线把Mercer是背后金主的事挖出来，推上有人重新推了这篇旧闻，但是我以前居然没看到。
https://www.publicintegrity.org/2016/10 ... ouse-hopes
英国媒体也开始注意Mercer:Revealed: how US billionaire helped to back Brexit

刚看到Mother Jones一篇报道，Donald Trump's Mystery $50 Million (or More) Loan--The president of the United States might have a secret creditor. 去年年川皇居然还填了一份财产表。财产表上有一笔神秘的“超过50米”的债务报项兜兜转转的走了几家银行就不见了。Mother Jones访问了专家，大家的见解是借钱给他的是一个没有公开的债主。

According to the disclosure, in 2012, Trump borrowed more than $50 million from a company called Chicago Unit Acquisition LLC. (The true value of the loan could be much higher; the form requires Trump only to state the range of the loan's value, and he selected the top range, "over $50,000,000.") Elsewhere in the same document, Trump notes that he owns this LLC. That is, he made the loan to himself. There's nothing necessarily unusual about that.

Here's where the situation gets odd. With Trump owning the Chicago Unit Acquisition LLC—and the LLC being owed $50 million or more by Trump—this company should be listed on Trump's disclosure as worth at least that much, unless it has debt offsetting this amount. Yet on Trump's latest disclosure form, Chicago Unit Acquisition is not listed at all. The disclosure rules say that any asset worth more than $1,000 must be noted. So this is the mystery: Why is this Trump-owned firm that holds a $50 million-plus note from Trump not worth anything?

The answer could be that Chicago Unit Acquisition has its own debts that cancel out its value, says Kathleen Clark, a law professor at Washington University in St. Louis, who specializes in government and corporate ethics. In other words, Trump's LLC could owe $50 million and possibly much more to one or more creditors that have not been disclosed to the public.

然后华尔街日报也对这笔钱感兴趣，派了两个公司去查都没查出个子丑寅卯。

A recent Wall Street Journal article noted that Trump pays a minimum of $4.4 million a year in interest in connection with his loan from Chicago Unit Acquisition LLC. His disclosure form states he pays the prime interest rate plus 5 percent for this loan. (Consequently, Chicago Unit Acquisition would have at least that much in annual revenue, though none is reported.) And the Journal report deepened the mystery. It noted that it had paid two research firms to search for paperwork connected to this loan, but both came up empty-handed.

然后大家又回来看去年川皇的财务报表，越看这笔神秘债务猫腻越大

if there are no loans offsetting the value of Chicago Unit Acquisition, Trump's disclosure form should list the outstanding debt as an asset. "None of the underlying assets or liabilities of the LLC owned by Trump need to appear on the 278—just its net value and Trump's ownership in it," Painter says. "That is one of the reasons the form is incomplete. If the LLC is owed money, that is a positive; if it owes money, that is a negative, for determining its value."

6。川皇白宫的头牌律师 － Don McGahn (2/25/2017)
川皇上任以来，这家伙的名字第一次出现在主流媒体应该是关于Flynn的报道里面说到Sally Yates在一月底自己被解雇之前就跟白宫律师报告过Flynn不可靠的消息。但是白宫律师什么都没做。这个白宫律师就是Don McGahn. 前两天突然爆出来好几篇他的人物素描,连标题都差不多。看得我又是心惊肉跳。

- The Enabler in Chief
-
He’s Going to Be an Enabler － As White House counsel, Don McGahn’s job is to keep Donald Trump in line. But he shares his boss’ hard-charging reputation.

Don McGahn最有名的事迹是2008－2013在FEC(Federal Election Commission联邦竞选委员会）当Commissioner。FEC的本来职责就是追查选举机制里面的黑钱问题。McGahn任职这五年里他的目的是"Make FEC irrelevant". 貌似这个委员会六个委员，三个共和党三个民主党。McGahn一进去就把三个共和党牢牢的捆在一起，处处和民主党作对，保证了FEC啥也做不成。

简直就是川皇内阁人员任命的蓝图和前辈。

在加入FEC之前，McGahn是chief counsel for the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC)。 为House Majority Leader Tom DeLay 的各种法律问题辩护的主要律师。其中除了DeLay竞选资金,德州选区重划的问题，还有一条就是。。。铛铛铛。。。接受俄国捐款给GOP竞选资金！当然还包括为Koch兄弟的Freedom Partner 辩护。

自从当了白宫头牌律师之后，大家怀疑所有这些有关川普藐视conflict of interests, 不抽身川家业务啦，继续重用Flynn啦，甚至七国移民令的发布啦，这个头牌律师都是给川皇当拉拉队的。

让人不由怀疑这个Koch的棋子是不是在给Pence铺路。。。

7。KramlinGate & FISA Warrant Weekend (3/6/2017)
这个热闹的周末，关心Mercer的人越来越多。
这个Justin Hendrix 的推特线翻出来一堆新的关于mercer的报道，从mother jones到亚特兰大月刊。有不少可以读。
Bloomberg 2014-10-23:The Man Who OutKoched the Kochs
The Atlantic 2017-01 No One Knows What the Powerful Mercers Really Want
NYT 2017-03-06 https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/06/us/p ... ytica.html

另外一个有意思的猜测关于到底川皇如何跟这帮苏联黑帮人物混到一起的，总结了推上很多自发人肉的结论然后加入了自己的调研，貌似靠谱
The Talking Point Memo 2017-03-03: The Innocent Explanation, Part #1
The Talking Point Memo 2017-03-05: The Innocent Explanation, Part #2: The Mailer Standard

还有两个有意思的报道关于川皇周围的“小丑“似的人物。
－Sebastian Gorka and His Distinguished Military Career
－The Mystery of Trumps Man in Moscow (Carter Page)

8。Paul Manafort & Roger Stone 代表全世界独裁者的Lobby Firm in Washington （3／22／2017）
Franklin Foer 一年前写的Manafort小传，看得我汗毛直立。
Slate 2016-04-28: The Quiet American-Paul Manafort made a career out of stealthily reinventing the world’s nastiest tyrants as noble defenders of freedom. Getting Donald Trump elected will be a cinch.

为独裁者们做代言人，不仅没有羞耻感，甚至非常自豪

His work necessarily entails secrecy. Although his client list has included chunks of the Fortune 500, he has also built a booming business working with dictators. As Roger Stone has boasted about their now-disbanded firm: “Black, Manafort, Stone, and Kelly, lined up most of the dictators of the world we could find. … Dictators are in the eye of the beholder.”Manafort had a special gift for changing how dictators are beheld by American eyes. He would recast them as noble heroes—venerated by Washington think tanks, deluged with money from Congress.

一手把政客选上台，另一手让政客为金主干活。

Despite his Yankee stock, Manafort ran Reagan’s Southern operation, the racially tinged appeal that infamously began in Philadelphia, Mississippi, the hamlet where civil rights activists were murdered in 1964. The success of the 1980 campaign gave Stone and Manafort cachet. More important, they helped run Reagan’s transition to power. They stocked the administration, distributing jobs across the agencies and accumulating owed favors that would provide the basis for their new lobbying business. They opened their doors in 1981.

Manafort and Stone pioneered a new style of firm, what K Street would come to call a double-breasted operation. One wing of the shop managed campaigns, electing a generation of Republicans, from Phil Gramm to Arlen Spector. The other wing lobbied the officials they helped to victory on behalf of its corporate clients. Over the course of their early years, they amassed a raft of blue-chip benefactors, including Salomon Brothers and Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp.

把整个GoP紧紧攥在手心。1988年GoP每一个候选人都是他们的客户。

Black would later boast that the firm had schemed to gain cartel-like control of the 1988 Republican presidential primary. They managed all of the major campaigns. Atwater took Bush; Black ran Dole; Stone handled Jack Kemp. A congressional staffer joked to a reporter from Time, “Why have primaries for the nomination? Why not have the candidates go over to Black, Manafort and Stone and argue it out?”

客户遍及全球，

Manafort enticed the African dictator to hire the firm. Many of the world’s dictators eventually became his clients. “Name a dictator and Black, Manafort will name the account,” Levine wrote. (Levine’s piece, published in Spy, featured a sidebar ranking the ethical behavior of Washington lobbyists: It found Black, Manafort the worst of the bunch.) The client list included Philippine strongman Ferdinand Marcos (with a $900,000 yearly contract) and the despots of the Dominican Republic, Nigeria, Kenya, Equatorial Guinea, and Somalia. When the Center for Public Integrity detailed the firm’s work, it titled the report “The Torturers’ Lobby.”

文章里面还讲了McCain 08年是怎么卷到他们这伙人手里的。怪不得现在McCain 时不时出来说句风凉话，原来他太熟悉这批人的黑暗度了。


今天AP刚爆的料，Manafort 2006年被普金手下最信赖的俄国富豪以每年10million的重金雇佣，“with a plan to "greatly benefit the Putin Government,"

上周Roger Stone被爆料他利用Farage 跟wikileak的阿萨奇联系，策划俄国泄漏希拉里团队被窃邮件的事。而且连Twitter数据显示stone还和最开始俄国骇客 Gucifer 2.0（最早泄漏DNC邮件的）频繁联系。

所以俄国跟川皇之间的运作几乎板上钉钉是Manafort和Stone一手搞定的。但是川皇贪心，又和普金谈条件，以Lift Sanction 或者缓和美国对俄国在Ukrian恶行的言辞作交换，代价是19%Rosnet（俄国能源公司）的股份。所以才有Steele Dossier和后来Flynn 以及Sessions的各种欲盖弥彰。
这个仅仅十条的Tweet Thread解释的很清楚

八完了！:)

好看！

看的我寒毛凛凛的。。

我也去搜了一下wiki，原来她本来是给Ted Cruz干的？Cruz退选之后她后来又给Trump工作。挺神的。

以前的客户还包括Newt，哎真是我讨厌的人也会往一起聚堆。我倒是好奇她零几年和一个民主党pollster写的一本“女人要什么”的书里，到底写了女人要什么。

In 2005, Conway and Democratic pollster Celinda Lake co-authored What Women Really Want: How American Women Are Quietly Erasing Political, Racial, Class, and Religious Lines to Change the Way We Live (Free Press/Simon and Schuster, 2005; ISBN 0-7432-7382-6).

老公原来是菲律宾裔的，名字倒是看不出来。

对，不仅是从 Ted Cruz 那边转过来，更重要的是把 Cruz 的大金主 Mercer 一起带给川普，所以川普才会雇她。
老公好像只有一半菲律宾血统(母亲这边)所以名字是非华裔爹的？我没有细看。
康为从小跟四个女人一起长大，妈妈，外婆和两个老姑娘姨妈，天主教家庭。极端反堕胎，自己有四个孩子。老公是看到她在杂志封面的照片追过来的，一拍即合。很神奇。她其实很美貌，怀疑她故意把自己搞得特憔悴。。。可能女性选民不会喜欢太漂亮的女发言人？估计她专攻的团体就是alt right 女人。。

april wrote:八完了！:)

谢谢这么高质量的八卦。我看完后觉得后背凉飕飕的。

写得真好看。

[quote] 如果川普被弹劾，她和Bannon还有Pence。 [quote]

这句是不是缺字了?

是不是说前景非常堪忧？

helenClaire wrote:

如果川普被弹劾，她和Bannon还有Pence。

这句是不是缺字了?

可能茶壶里的饺子没倒出来。我的意思是Pence是她亲选的，没有了川普，pence依然被她和Bannon 控制继续执行他们的蓝图。。。所以他们双保险。

april 同学这一路顺藤摸瓜，挖出好大的料。

Kellyanne Conway 确实是跟 Steve Bannon 走得很近，不过她以前的名声只是 conservative pollster，貌似并无直接参政的经验。川普在竞选过程中连续闹翻了好几任经理 --- 还记得 Corey Lewandowski 吗？建制派的共和党里的资深 operatives 还是想跟川普合作的，但是他们的老油条的政客风格跟川普产生了巨大冲突，被赶走了。之前的各任竞选经理都以为自己才是内行，川普应该服从自己听话照做 --- 是的，华盛顿的 political operatives 和政客之间的关系经常是这样的 --- 所以就闹翻了。Conway 能成功留下来是因为她特别会哄川普开心，她特别能屈能伸不拘小节，顺毛撸，被骂也不介意，脸皮也厚，被老板当众下不来台，她能自己找梯子下。

至于 Bannon 为啥能把川普捏在手里我就不清楚了，也许是男人之间的情投意合吧。注意川普的爸爸的风格是很专横独裁的，而 Bannon 最推崇这一套，他俩对于“阳刚气概”的概念不谋而合。

我倾向于认为 Conway 升到现在的地位是投机的结果，而不是特别高明缜密的计划。其他人受不了被淘汰了，或者太有耻了一点，只剩下这几个能跟川皇共处。

美国的极右派也分很多流派，但立场有很多重叠，还挺复杂的。白人至上主义，基督教原旨主义（里面还分极右天主教和 evangelicals 等等分支），libertarians，联合国/外国阴谋论派，全球经济阴谋论派（跟黄金有关系），直接崇拜希特勒的新纳粹，三K党，石油化工业大亨（Koch, Bush 家族），全球化反动媒体（Murdoch, Daily Mail, Fox News），等等。

在小布什年代我注意过一些，很多是在 Fresh Air 的访谈里听到的。例如 Jeremy Scahill 报道 military contractor (private army) Blackwater 跟基督教极右势力，例如 Jerry Falwell 他们，有很深的关联。他们一直在暗暗准备打一场圣战。还有国会共和党大拿们跟基督教极右派领袖聚集的 The C Street House (http://www.salon.com/2009/07/21/c_street). 后来 Obama 上台我就没再注意了，具体实例也忘得差不多了。

但是川普背后的这批人，以 Bannon 为代表的 alt-right，又是新兴势力，以前是被认为不足道的 fringe 流派，现在已经... 其实我也不知道他们要干什么。川普自己和他周围的亲信是一群奇异的组合，有共同追求但又各怀鬼胎。

极右派内部虽然五花八门，但是美国本土的极右派基本上都是铁杆的 racists, white supremacists. 美国特有的种族主义其实跟德国纳粹主义和英国版的种族主义略有差异，但是彼此之间源远流长，在互联网时代更得到发扬光大。Southern Poverty Law Center 大概是搜集美国种族主义运动的情报最全的中心，经常揭露隐秘伪装的新纳粹分子/组织及他们背后的关联。

坦白讲，川普上台，我的内心深处不是没有一点 thrill 的。过去这些年里我一直觉得美国是分裂的双重人格，一面是光鲜繁荣的广告宣传，一面是不可名状的暗流汹涌。看上去很开明讲理心智成熟的人（有华人也有美国人）跟我解释民主党/自由派/Obama/Hillary 等等的危害，一条条都是 Fox News 反复宣传的，连用词都一样，让我瞬间产生强烈的恐惧感。其实我根本不看 Fox News，却很熟悉他们的理论，为什么？因为每次听见不同的人表达号称是“共和党”或者“保守派”的观点都机械重复，内容一样而不自觉。这不是指保守派知识分子例如 David Brooks 的理论，而是保守派民众的言语。现在终于浮出水面了不再遮遮掩掩，证明这一切不是我的幻觉。

说到这里我忽然想起很久以前看的一部科幻恐怖片 They Live。

Jun wrote:至于 Bannon 为啥能把川普捏在手里我就不清楚了，也许是男人之间的情投意合吧。注意川普的爸爸的风格是很专横独裁的，而 Bannon 最推崇这一套，他俩对于“阳刚气概”的概念不谋而合。

同意，另外川皇有军人情结（被老爸送去上过军校）而Bannon去华尔街前在海军服过役。所以估计是川普崇拜的那一套。再有就是像川普这样的bully，最擅长捏软柿子，一般见到比他更凶的立刻就怂了。

Jun wrote:Southern Poverty Law Center 大概是搜集美国种族主义运动的情报最全的中心，经常揭露隐秘伪装的新纳粹分子/组织及他们背后的关联。

多谢Jun的信息。我对那一条连接一直心里犯嘀咕不知道是不是"Fake News". 但是读上去很实在，没有渲染没有耸人听闻。可是又奇怪如果是可靠的消息怎么没有媒体来报这个？
另外一个奇怪的地方是康威是里面的exec committee member, 但是她老公连成员都不是。。。

Jun wrote:坦白讲，川普上台，我的内心深处不是没有一点 thrill 的。过去这些年里我一直觉得美国是分裂的双重人格，一面是光鲜繁荣的广告宣传，一面是不可名状的暗流汹涌。看上去很开明讲理心智成熟的人（有华人也有美国人）跟我解释民主党/自由派/Obama/Hillary 等等的危害，一条条都是 Fox News 反复宣传的，连用词都一样，让我瞬间产生强烈的恐惧感。其实我根本不看 Fox News，却很熟悉他们的理论，为什么？因为每次听见不同的人表达号称是“共和党”或者“保守派”的观点都机械重复，内容一样而不自觉。这不是指保守派知识分子例如 David Brooks 的理论，而是保守派民众的言语。现在终于浮出水面了不再遮遮掩掩，证明这一切不是我的幻觉。

我对这个现实也觉得庆幸。以前不知道，现在终于得以面对真实的人性的恶了，虽然丑陋，但是真实，比以前的虚伪好很多。也鼓励我不能再坐享其成，要参与要警惕要抗议！

料太足了，我真的不想知道这么多 让我回左派泡泡里喘息一下。

今天LA Times opinion page上一篇说DeVos和她的voucher计划的。基本就是一个把public fund灌入私校，特别是宗教私校的计划。
http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la ... story.html

vivi wrote:今天LA Times opinion page上一篇说DeVos和她的voucher计划的。基本就是一个把public fund灌入私校，特别是宗教私校的计划。
http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la ... story.html

是啊，基本上看看http://www.cfnp.org/的宗旨就知道他们的最终目标了。把美国退回到十九世纪吧！拆掉一切政府管理的福利（公校，移民法，医保，等等）。

这篇文章更恐怖。
脸书的"like"数据有多厉害。
https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/arti ... -trump-win大数据如何帮助川普和brexit.

Kosinski and his team tirelessly refined their models. In 2012, Kosinski proved that on the basis of an average of 68 Facebook "likes" by a user, it was possible to predict their skin color (with 95 percent accuracy), their sexual orientation (88 percent accuracy), and their affiliation to the Democratic or Republican party (85 percent). But it didn't stop there. Intelligence, religious affiliation, as well as alcohol, cigarette and drug use, could all be determined. From the data it was even possible to deduce whether someone's parents were divorced.

The strength of their modeling was illustrated by how well it could predict a subject's answers. Kosinski continued to work on the models incessantly: before long, he was able to evaluate a person better than the average work colleague, merely on the basis of ten Facebook "likes." Seventy "likes" were enough to outdo what a person's friends knew, 150 what their parents knew, and 300 "likes" what their partner knew. More "likes" could even surpass what a person thought they knew about themselves. On the day that Kosinski published these findings, he received two phone calls. The threat of a lawsuit and a job offer. Both from Facebook.

如何鼓励希拉里投票人不去投票

How to keep Clinton voters away from the ballot box

Trump's striking inconsistencies, his much-criticized fickleness, and the resulting array of contradictory messages, suddenly turned out to be his great asset: a different message for every voter. The notion that Trump acted like a perfectly opportunistic algorithm following audience reactions is something the mathematician Cathy O'Neil observed in August 2016.

These "dark posts"—sponsored Facebook posts that can only be seen by users with specific profiles—included videos aimed at African-Americans in which Hillary Clinton refers to black men as predators, for example.
"Pretty much every message that Trump put out was data-driven," Alexander Nix remembers. On the day of the third presidential debate between Trump and Clinton, Trump's team tested 175,000 different ad variations for his arguments, in order to find the right versions above all via Facebook. The messages differed for the most part only in microscopic details, in order to target the recipients in the optimal psychological way: different headings, colors, captions, with a photo or video. This fine-tuning reaches all the way down to the smallest groups, Nix explained in an interview with us. "We can address villages or apartment blocks in a targeted way. Even individuals."

如何最高效的增加川粉

The measures were radical: From July 2016, Trump's canvassers were provided with an app with which they could identify the political views and personality types of the inhabitants of a house. It was the same app provider used by Brexit campaigners. Trump's people only rang at the doors of houses that the app rated as receptive to his messages. The canvassers came prepared with guidelines for conversations tailored to the personality type of the resident. In turn, the canvassers fed the reactions into the app, and the new data flowed back to the dashboards of the Trump campaign.

And yet there are clues: There is the fact of the surprising rise of Ted Cruz during the primaries. Also there was an increased number of voters in rural areas. There was the decline in the number of African-American early votes. The fact that Trump spent so little money may also be explained by the effectiveness of personality-based advertising. As does the fact that he invested far more in digital than TV campaigning compared to Hillary Clinton. Facebook proved to be the ultimate weapon and the best election campaigner, as Nix explained, and as comments by several core Trump campaigners demonstrate.

简直是现代的原子弹。。。它的制造者跟当年的核物理科学家感觉差不多。。。

To him, the internet had always seemed like a gift from heaven. What he really wanted was to give something back, to share. Data can be copied, so why shouldn't everyone benefit from it? It was the spirit of a whole generation, the beginning of a new era that transcended the limitations of the physical world. But what would happen, wondered Kosinski, if someone abused his people search engine to manipulate people? He began to add warnings to most of his scientific work. His approach, he warned, "could pose a threat to an individual's well-being, freedom, or even life." But no one seemed to grasp what he meant.

The world has been turned upside down. Great Britain is leaving the EU, Donald Trump is president of the United States of America. And in Stanford, Kosinski, who wanted to warn against the danger of using psychological targeting in a political setting, is once again receiving accusatory emails. "No," says Kosinski, quietly and shaking his head. "This is not my fault. I did not build the bomb. I only showed that it exists."

这个大数据公司的board member有Bannon. 投资来自Mercer. 这文章没提Conway, 可是所有影子都连到她。Bannon和Mercer女儿都和她关系密切，她从90s开始就是做polling和voter analysis的。这公司最早是帮Cruz的，而Cruz就是Conway的客户啊！

april wrote:

vivi wrote:今天LA Times opinion page上一篇说DeVos和她的voucher计划的。基本就是一个把public fund灌入私校，特别是宗教私校的计划。
http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la ... story.html

是啊，基本上看看http://www.cfnp.org/的宗旨就知道他们的最终目标了。把美国退回到十九世纪吧！拆掉一切政府管理的福利（公校，移民法，医保，等等）。

总之就是白男至上。女人接着乖乖的当生育机器吧，非白人就安心的当二等公民吧。等等，也许能当上二等公民也是要靠白人老爷发善心呢。

数据分析选民倾向的政治软件和技术不是新鲜事物，其实 Obama 的团队早在 2008 年就开始用了。2016选举把整块技术都转手送给了 Clinton 的竞选团队，至于怎么用的，会不会用，就不知道了。这方面已经成为竞选工业的一大块，基本上人人都在用。之前也有大量的选民数据分析，进步的是技术手段而已。

当然民主党竞选团队不敢搞 Voter suppression 的活动，他们的 base 不会接受的。 共和党随意，voter suppression 是传统。

不过说实话这套技术其实没有那么神奇，每个人的政治立场其实是基本无法改变的，宣传的效果有限。所以各方面的重点在于增加己方的投票率。每次大选只有一半以下的人投票，一半以上的人根本懒得动。

川皇的女婿到底是啥角色？他一个犹太人和一帮白人至上反犹的人怎么混？

vivi wrote:川皇的女婿到底是啥角色？他一个犹太人和一帮白人至上反犹的人怎么混？

不很清楚。我对他也一直没啥兴趣。纽约客写康为那文里有提到他，貌似也不是啥省油的灯。又有川皇罩着，应该没人敢跟他不对付。

The end for Lewandowski came when Manafort and Kushner allied against him. “When Manafort was brought on, Corey and Manafort basically went head to head,” the Trump campaign official said. “Jared, the son-in-law, who is a snaky little motherfucker, a horrible human being, hated Corey, so Jared sided with Paul to get rid of Corey.”

“When the Ukraine stuff comes to pass, Jared now is holding the axe over Paul’s head,” the campaign official said. The Trump adviser added, “The real campaign manager, in fact, the entire time, has been Jared Kushner, who is still the real campaign manager, even today.”

With Manafort falling out of the Trump family’s favor, Conway began subtly undermining his strategists. When Tony Fabrizio, the lead pollster, submitted a budget that Kushner thought was too high, Conway offered a cheaper alternative. “Kellyanne gives him a budget of between one and a half and three million dollars,” the campaign official said. “Come on. I mean, Senate races do more than that. You can’t do a modern Presidential campaign on that.”

In August, the Mercers recommended that Trump bring in Bannon to lead a reorganized effort. “I’ve never run a campaign,” Bannon told Trump. “I’d only do this if Kellyanne came in as my partner.”

Jun wrote:数据分析选民倾向的政治软件和技术不是新鲜事物，其实 Obama 的团队早在 2008 年就开始用了。2016选举把整块技术都转手送给了 Clinton 的竞选团队，至于怎么用的，会不会用，就不知道了。这方面已经成为竞选工业的一大块，基本上人人都在用。之前也有大量的选民数据分析，进步的是技术手段而已。

当然民主党竞选团队不敢搞 Voter suppression 的活动，他们的 base 不会接受的。 共和党随意，voter suppression 是传统。

不过说实话这套技术其实没有那么神奇，每个人的政治立场其实是基本无法改变的，宣传的效果有限。所以各方面的重点在于增加己方的投票率。每次大选只有一半以下的人投票，一半以上的人根本懒得动。

文章有提到Clinton团队用的技术。Brexit和川普用的技术是建立在这文章的主角Psychologist Michal Kosinski 在剑桥做的研究，第一份报告是2012年发表的，所以比奥巴马那个要先进精确很多很多。

"This is a data dashboard that we prepared for the Cruz campaign." A digital control center appears. On the left are diagrams; on the right, a map of Iowa, where Cruz won a surprisingly large number of votes in the primary. And on the map, there are hundreds of thousands of small red and blue dots. Nix narrows down the criteria: "Republicans"—the blue dots disappear; "not yet convinced"—more dots disappear; "male", and so on. Finally, only one name remains, including age, address, interests, personality and political inclination. How does Cambridge Analytica now target this person with an appropriate political message?
<snip>
Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, relied heavily on the legacy of the first "social-media president," Barack Obama. She had the address lists of the Democratic Party, worked with cutting-edge big data analysts from BlueLabs and received support from Google and DreamWorks. When it was announced in June 2016 that Trump had hired Cambridge Analytica, the establishment in Washington just turned up their noses. Foreign dudes in tailor-made suits who don't understand the country and its people? Seriously?

vivi wrote:川皇的女婿到底是啥角色？他一个犹太人和一帮白人至上反犹的人怎么混？

最近看了六年多以前那个UCSD女穆斯林学生和某个犹太老头的问答，我不由揣测也许犹太人希望利用白人至上来反穆斯林。

至于最后会不会反犹，他们可能觉得自己已经掌握了足够多的资源和要职，不至于到那一步。又或者暂时和穆斯林的矛盾更大更紧急，别的先放一放。

我记得大选前，内塔尼亚胡是反川的，而赌城那个犹太佬大富翁安德尔森，是支持川普的。
（刚才想到安德尔森，去wiki了他一眼，发现他儿子去年刚刚磕药过多挂了，他的做法是捐钱到处反对大麻合法化。。。不知道为什么我觉得这事颇有点twist——I mean,就算大麻处处不合法，难道他儿子想要毒品还会弄不到。。。）

Jun你在另一个帖子里用的那个词，心怀鬼胎，是非常贴切。

这一帮人，包括川女儿女婿，Bannon，康威，国会共和党，茶党，等等等等，每一小堆都有各自的agenda，有些相同有些不同，有些根本都是相反。这次川皇上台，忽然觉得是个千载难逢好机会，可以互相利用，把平时干不了的那一块正大光明摆出来大干一场。所以各自都厚着脸皮，不，就算打肿自己脸，也要互相逢迎着把这场大戏做下去。

看了一圈最后反而是川皇最耿直boy。

所以这个帖子到底是不是个恐怖片啊？

笑嘻嘻 wrote:所以这个帖子到底是不是个恐怖片啊？

才刚开头，渲染了点气氛。各路观众纷纷发表剧情预测。

恐怖片需要预警啊！

笑嘻嘻 wrote:恐怖片需要预警啊！

Too late darling. This is a horror movie and we are living in it.

同学们，这些东西没有一个是新的，而是酝酿多年的结果。我还有点感谢川普，让更多的群众放下手里的柴米油盐，注意到离自己很远（至少心理上很远）的地方在发生什么事情，会怎样影响到自己的生活。我不再觉得自己是个杞人忧天 paranoid 首都居民。

想多了解一些美国政治黑幕的同学，我第一推荐纽约客的深度调查记者 Jane Mayer，她特别能挖，干货多，没有打广告的废话。最近写的书 Dark Money 并不只是关于 Koch 兄弟的，而是美国政治是怎样买卖的。如果没空看书，可以看她在纽约客杂志上的报道：
http://www.newyorker.com/contributors/jane-mayer

如果不耐烦看文章可以看她的推： @janemayernyer

还可以 Google 一下 Jane Mayer + Fresh Air，听听她在新鲜空气上的采访。

我的感受是，问题不在于谁是今天的幕后黑手，而是美国的政治系统到底是怎样运作的，揭开 Don Draper 式的精心制作的广告表面，看见下面的真相，从头到尾就不是 Captain America 那张电脑抹去所有皱纹瑕疵的塑料脸皮。弄到今天这个样子不必惊奇，这些令人恶心的政策也并不是川皇脑子里跳出来的东西。

(Let's be frank. Liberals have contributed more and more effectively to the glitzy advertisement for the American Ideal than Conservatives, but we can sort of forgive them because they believe it.)

april wrote: 文章有提到Clinton团队用的技术。Brexit和川普用的技术是建立在这文章的主角Psychologist Michal Kosinski 在剑桥做的研究，第一份报告是2012年发表的，所以比奥巴马那个要先进精确很多很多。

那篇文章我也看了，在脸书上
总的来说，我们其实不知道剑桥分析这个公司在川普当选和brexit 胜利里起到了多大作用。这两个竞选运动肯定都雇了一堆类似的公司，不会光用一个新兴小公司。
剑桥分析到底用的是什么数据怎么做心理分析，其实也说的不太清楚。
如果能做完心理分析归类进攻，比传统的地址年龄性别族裔可能精确度要大。但是从脸书点赞来做心理分析，准确度有多大真不好说，Kosinski 有没有吹牛。
"Pretty much every message that Trump put out was data-driven," says Cambridge Analytica CEO Alexander Nix -- 这肯定是小公司CEO乘机吹牛！川才不会按数据出牌。他是个很强的销售员，在一个间屋子里边说边观察人群反应调整说话内容，把人群情绪推向高潮。

总的来说，我们其实不知道剑桥分析这个公司在川普当选和brexit 胜利里起到了多大作用。

总的来说，我觉得本次选举其实证实了心口不一是普遍人性。People don't tell you how they really feel. Actually people have no idea how they really feel and why. 民调啦，宣传啦，大数据分析啦，仍然搞不懂心理。而且很形象地证实了并不是只有大学毕业的知识分子才有 superego, ego, id 之间的冲突，以及个人本能与社会文明的冲突，普通民众都有。

川普当然很愚蠢，但是我们这些知识分子 elites 忘了美国人民对于愚蠢的热爱：Ronald Reagan 就是个段子手，把本来很复杂的事情变成家常小段子说给大家听，根本是扯淡但是逗得群众神魂颠倒。George W. Bush 文化不高，连话都结结巴巴说不清，被人民捧为淳朴可信，好！

同意simonsun和Jun的解释。Trumpstan 第一季刚开始，基本处于Westworld开头时候大家猜测剧情发展阶段。不同的是我们实实在在生活在这个“剧”里。

Trump friend says Priebus is ‘in way over his head’
哈！Priebus这个倒霉蛋要背黑锅了。Chief of Staff一直是康威的目标，唾手可及啦！

另外就是媒体和白宫里其他心怀鬼胎的人也看明白了康威利用CNN给"Audience of one"表忠心的手段啦！学得快！


再来一个好问题
A top Putin critic on how to oppose Trump: “making him look like a loser is crucial” A conversation with chess champion Garry Kasparov.
关于谁提名Tillerson这点很有意思，值得关注一下。后面关于GOP完全没有原则说的太到位了。

I still want to know who suggested Tillerson’s name, if not one of Trump’s Russia contacts, perhaps someone with the Kissinger group that is working with both sides. Tillerson is a serious guy, not a lightweight or crony like so many of Trump’s nominees. If he is actually dedicated to serving the United States, he could be a moderating force on Trump, because he won’t let Trump push him around and his leaving would be a huge embarrassment after such a battle to confirm him.

Maybe I’m too optimistic, of course, and he’s just there to facilitate oil deals and lift sanctions for Putin and Exxon Mobil. If the worst case is true, the circumstantial case for Trump being compromised by Russian intelligence will be incredibly strong. Don’t forget Wilbur Ross for secretary of commerce, who has big dealings with Putin oligarch Viktor Vekselberg.

GOP politicians are putting party over principles by supporting Trump so loyally, and by so doing, they reveal they don’t actually have any principles at all.

这个关于immune system的比喻也非常贴切。

We gave Putin a chance in Russia, and it was the last free election we ever had. It’s far better to act and later admit you overreacted than to do nothing until it’s impossible to act. Still, the United States is not Russia; institutions are far stronger. They’ve just grown atrophied through lack of rigorous use, like an immune system that hasn’t been under a direct attack in so long it can’t respond to an infection.

笑死。川皇的这些狐朋狗友都是attention whore吗？估计是川皇授意的？

多谢Jun的推荐，刚刚去下单买了Jane Mayer的Dark Money, 今晚开看！网上看到的文章里说Mercer和Koch并不是一伙儿的。
Mercer他们好像跟川皇相像，都是什么都不吝的作风。刚才看了Maddow分析Flynn事件的那十二分钟视屏。感觉Flynn简直太业余了。这个Russian connection不像是俄国间谍网，更像是川皇／Mercer他们主动送上门联系普金联手干了一票。（忍不住又去联想罗马共和国。。。好像Catilinarian Conspiracy 的现代版。。。）

同意Knowing的解读，Cambridge Analytica的作用并不清楚。不过这个公司作为一个线索太有意思了。

宫斗大戏，一演四年。

有谣言说 Sean Spicer 要被踢掉了，周末扔出一个 Stephen Miller 来当传声筒。走马灯一样。

不管怎么闹，Steve Bannon 稳坐钓鱼台，把川普治得服服帖帖的，可见给 President Bannon 写明信片是正确的。

Koch 兄弟很讨厌川普的，他们是真~内行，看川普就 TMD 业余的。但是业余的背后有共和党大多数民众撑着，建制派拿他没办法。（这事儿一言难尽，共和党建制派是自作自受。）

非常赞 april 新加的一段关于 Mercer 的八卦。有空我也去搜搜。

关于上面镜花提到的犹太人图什么，这件事也是一言难尽，历史悠久。简而言之就是犹太复国主义和白人国家有百多年的互相利用的历史，直到现在，美国的基督教原旨主义政治也不敢得罪犹太大亨金主，而美国有很多保守势力还需要以色列留在中东牵制 OPEC 诸国。这一切都跟宗教没有半毛钱关系，全是金钱，能源，政治，军事的关系。中国人连自己都不知是怎么掺和进去的，两眼一擦黑地给别人当枪使，反穆斯林口号喊得这么响，不知道能不能说服白人老爷自己最忠。

这次poll误差这么大是不是因为很多人是衣橱里的川粉？要是的话啥poll也没用啊，科学猜的出人心里的鬼吗？！
基督教原教旨，白人至上主义不反犹我是不信的。金主不金主也不过是时间问题。真纳粹上来了还管是谁的钱呢。

啊！mercer 这么保守? 他岂不是要天天跟James Simons (文艺复兴创始人，克林顿粉)吵架? QUANT FUND 的人一般都是高校数学物理出身的自由派, 里面充满外国移民, 就像硅谷大部分是自由派一样. 保守派很少见的. 等我去追看一下他的事情.
我推过Jane Meyer好几次, 她一直追KOCH 兄弟隐秘支持茶党的黑金政治, 很令人尊重的.
这些巨富巨富真正1%干政特点就是不露脸，不但不要出风头而且层层面纱的躲在后面，通过一堆基金会七拐八弯掩饰足迹。Jane Meyer说调查他们需要的不只记者学位还有会计学位。另一个特点是绝不仅仅贪图退个税去个管制的直接利益（那些也图），还要推自己的意识形态洗脑选民影响政客，找准可影响的对象把自己的主张不择手段复制进去变成几百万几千万AGENT，让他们违背自身利益投票。

april wrote:

helenClaire wrote:

如果川普被弹劾，她和Bannon还有Pence。

这句是不是缺字了?

可能茶壶里的饺子没倒出来。我的意思是Pence是她亲选的，没有了川普，pence依然被她和Bannon 控制继续执行他们的蓝图。。。所以他们双保险。

明白了，会断句了。谢谢！

真好看，再接着写啊！

关于政治黑金的问题让我想起在大学里上的 Political Science 101，大部分内容基本都忘光了，就记得有钱未必买得到选票这一条。以前赤裸裸地买选票是很常见的，直到二十世纪中期。不过砸了很多钱的富翁未必能说服选民，我记得胖老头教授提了很多例证。后来慢慢意识到民意象海浪，是一种自然现象，不太容易操纵 --- 不是说不能操纵，但短期内一个浪头打来是没法阻止的。这一点中国人比较不容易理解。象 Mercer 这样只能说押宝押对了，到底有多少作用其实是打问号的。但是 Koch 兄弟放弃中央专攻地方政治，是政治腐败的新时代新策略。

我们目前看到的在美国的民意生态，实际上是共和党内保守派里的某些人坚持不懈地搞了几十年的结果，从六十年代后期开始搞的 Southern Stratgey (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_strategy) ，2016年达到顶峰（还多亏了对方推出的黑人总统导致的反弹，否则也没那么有效）。这就不止是一两个富翁往里砸钱能达到的效果。这个运动里的关键人物都是幕后的，不管上台的是谁，他们总是起到重大作用，例如 Lee Atwater 和 Roger Ailes。这些策划者不一定自己真的信仰保守派运动的所有宗旨，例如 Dick Cheney 根本不是 Christian fundamentalist 也不是 social conservative，他全力推 GWB 并不是因为理念相似。但是他们完全不介意利用保守派里的理想和原则来拉拢，不，互相利用。就说最近的俄国问题，其实共和党并不喜欢俄国，但是他们现在都认为俄国对于美国的军事地位不足以造成威胁，可以互相利用一下，先打倒敌人 --- 即 Hillary Clinton，民主党，同性恋，女权运动，少数族裔 --- 等大权握紧了之后再慢慢清算。当然 Putin 也不是傻子，你当我不足道，我正好借你的合作崛起，先把乌克兰叙利亚搞定，以后还不知道谁清算谁呢。

XX在下一盘很大的棋....

GOP的前途呢？就此变成新纳粹吗？昨天看新闻，Mitch给示威者从机场追到家里！

所以啊，在大选期间，有很多共和党加入了 Never Trump 的运动，虽然大部分到后来都夹着尾巴站回队形了。很多党内元老也表示很痛心，但又舍不得川普带来的选民与热情。

也许在被新纳粹占领之前，整个美国政治都被俄国情报机关连锅端了呢？看到推上漏出的消息 National Security Agency （就是自动收集监视全国人民的电邮通讯被 Snowden 揭露的那个机关）工作人员不敢跟川皇汇报某些重要情报，怕立刻就传到普京爸爸耳朵里了。说实话 GOP 连卖国都不怕还怕什么变成新纳粹。

还好俄国都是白人哦！

而且是特 macho 的白男领导（当然俄国女人也很 macho），弯男在俄国混不下去，多理想啊。(Sigh, these are not even jokes any more.)

刀子亮出来了，应该是Koch和Mercer/trump间的较量吧？
- Conway Should Be Investigated For Plugging Ivanka Trump Products, Ethics Agency Says (解读：GOP想把康为搞下去，GOP是Koch口袋里的，所以应该是听从Koch的命令开始搞这个？）
- Breitbart puts Priebus on notice （解读：Priebus是GOP放在川皇边的眼线，这是Mercer/Bannon/康为想给GOP一个下马威？）

april wrote: Breitbart puts Priebus on notice

这篇文章一点进去就看见：

Matthew Boyle, Breitbart's Washington political editor, citing unnamed sources close to the president, reported that Priebus may be next on the chopping block after the Monday night resignation of national security adviser Michael Flynn.

哈哈哈哈，好有喜感。

昨天在牙医诊所休息室里看见时代周刊新一期，封面是班农，妈呀吓我一跟头，不打粉就上镜，堪比 horror show 剧照。



I don't think Kellyanne Conway is in any immediate danger. 她其实还没有打入权力中心，重大决策都跟她没关系，正因为如此，也没人真的急着抢她的地位。

刚看到说川皇今天twitter un-follow了康为（白宫和potus账户），然后这事在媒体炒起来之后，potus又re-follow了她。。。还能更儿戏一点么。

http://emptylighthouse.com/has-kellyann ... -822614792

Today, within the last few hours, Trump decided to unfollow Conway on Twitter. In addition, Conway, who used to have a large banner supporting Trump on her Twitter, has removed the banner. So what does this mean?

Update: Trump just re-followed Conway from the @POTUS account, and he just started following Conway from the @realDonaldTrump account. Clearly, the online brouhaha about this is affecting the White House. It's still unclear if the unfollow portends anything. The WhiteHouse account is currently not following Conway.

Kellyanne Conway's interview tricks, explained
https://www.facebook.com/ezraklein/vide ... 972019975/

I hope news programs just stop booking Conway.

数据分析是强大武器，我信。川普的行为是数据驱动的，我不信。现在白宫的各种出台文件里语法和拼写错误百出，怎么解释呢?

据说川普 unfollow 康为的推是谣言不是真的。
怀疑是 GOP-koch 和 Trump-mercer 两边在博弈。GOP 那边威胁要调查康为， breitbart 就放话要把 priebus 撤了。 可见康为地位不低。Priebus 可是 GOP 放在川皇身边的唯一大棋。
今天川皇去佛州 rally 估计也是策略之一， GOP Koch 担心自己的民意大跌，川皇就说我的民意依然很高你不要信 polling, pence 上来才会民意一落千丈。我 Rally 一个给你看。。。

他就是个ATTENTION WHORE

现在还搞rally真是有病啊（有病不是新闻了）。听说有抗议者弄了票，希望别出事。

黑钱(Dark Money)看了三分之二了，简直震撼的喘不过气来。

刚刚看到"Climategate"那一段，极右们联合起来给予奥巴马们重视global warming政策的一次痛击。心里一激灵，这跟这次竞选hack DNC也太像了吧！从手段到时间拿捏，到后续。如出一辙。

The opposition grew as the Obama administration got ready to head to Copenhagen in December 2009 for its first international climate summit. World leaders expected the United States would finally commit to serious reform. ...Given Obama's position, time seemed to be running out for the fossil fuel forces and their free-market allies. Then on November 17, 2009, an annymous commenter on a contrarian Web site declared, "A miracle has happened."

With lethal timing, an unidentified saboteur had hacked expertly into the University of East Anglia's Web site and uploaded thousands of internal e-mails detailing the private communications of the scientists working in its famed Climatic Research Unit. The climatologists at the British university had been in constant communication with those in America, and now all of their unguarded professional doubts, along with their unguarded and sometimes contemptuous asides about their opponents, stretching all the way back to 1996, were visible for the entire world to read.

网上一查果然有传言CIA说是俄国干的。也就是说Koch他们早就跟俄国沟通好了，起码2009或者更早？！这次川普耿直boy把这也揭到明面上来了？

In October, the CIA announced the establishment of its Center on Climate Change and National Security, despite fierce opposition by Republican lawmakers. Earlier this month, it was alleged that the hackers who stole and leaked onto the Internet hundreds of University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit emails were operating via a Russian military and security network, a claim that has been disputed by the Russian FSB (Federal Security Service).

还有就是这次俄国hack DNC的同时还hack了地方选举的系统。而Koch兄弟不就是说不帮川普全力投入地方选举的吗？
According To Declassified Report, Russians Hacked Local And State Election Boards

反动派也可以互相借鉴学习方法吧？不一定每次都是 Koch 兄弟直接参与的。Welcome to globalization. 人类进步神速的关键就是知识和技术的传播。

Bekah Mercer 代表的是极右派里的民粹派分支，以前在 conservative 里面处于边缘，中间的建制派和 neoconservative 派精英们不太想跟他们扯在一起，现在他们占领了 conservative 的主流，反而把精英们挤到一边。精英派如 David Brooks 哭死。