Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

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IF NOT
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Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by IF NOT » 2011-12-20 22:49

TWENTY years ago a debate erupted about whether there were specific “Asian values”. Most attention focused on dubious claims by autocrats that democracy was not among them. But a more intriguing, if less noticed, argument was that traditional family values were stronger in Asia than in America and Europe, and that this partly accounted for Asia’s economic success. In the words of Lee Kuan Yew, former prime minister of Singapore and a keen advocate of Asian values, the Chinese family encouraged “scholarship and hard work and thrift and deferment of present enjoyment for future gain”.

On the face of it his claim appears persuasive still. In most of Asia, marriage is widespread and illegitimacy almost unknown. In contrast, half of marriages in some Western countries end in divorce, and half of all children are born outside wedlock. The recent riots across Britain, whose origins many believe lie in an absence of either parental guidance or filial respect, seem to underline a profound difference between East and West.

Yet marriage is changing fast in East, South-East and South Asia, even though each region has different traditions. The changes are different from those that took place in the West in the second half of the 20th century. Divorce, though rising in some countries, remains comparatively rare. What’s happening in Asia is a flight from marriage (see article).

Marriage rates are falling partly because people are postponing getting hitched. Marriage ages have risen all over the world, but the increase is particularly marked in Asia. People there now marry even later than they do in the West. The mean age of marriage in the richest places—Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and Hong Kong—has risen sharply in the past few decades, to reach 29-30 for women and 31-33 for men.

A lot of Asians are not marrying later. They are not marrying at all. Almost a third of Japanese women in their early 30s are unmarried; probably half of those will always be. Over one-fifth of Taiwanese women in their late 30s are single; most will never marry. In some places, rates of non-marriage are especially striking: in Bangkok, 20% of 40-44-year old women are not married; in Tokyo, 21%; among university graduates of that age in Singapore, 27%. So far, the trend has not affected Asia’s two giants, China and India. But it is likely to, as the economic factors that have driven it elsewhere in Asia sweep through those two countries as well; and its consequences will be exacerbated by the sex-selective abortion practised for a generation there. By 2050, there will be 60m more men of marriageable age than women in China and India.

The joy of staying single

Women are retreating from marriage as they go into the workplace. That’s partly because, for a woman, being both employed and married is tough in Asia. Women there are the primary caregivers for husbands, children and, often, for ageing parents; and even when in full-time employment, they are expected to continue to play this role. This is true elsewhere in the world, but the burden that Asian women carry is particularly heavy. Japanese women, who typically work 40 hours a week in the office, then do, on average, another 30 hours of housework. Their husbands, on average, do three hours. And Asian women who give up work to look after children find it hard to return when the offspring are grown. Not surprisingly, Asian women have an unusually pessimistic view of marriage. According to a survey carried out this year, many fewer Japanese women felt positive about their marriage than did Japanese men, or American women or men.

At the same time as employment makes marriage tougher for women, it offers them an alternative. More women are financially independent, so more of them can pursue a single life that may appeal more than the drudgery of a traditional marriage. More education has also contributed to the decline of marriage, because Asian women with the most education have always been the most reluctant to wed—and there are now many more highly educated women.

No marriage, no babies

The flight from marriage in Asia is thus the result of the greater freedom that women enjoy these days, which is to be celebrated. But it is also creating social problems. Compared with the West, Asian countries have invested less in pensions and other forms of social protection, on the assumption that the family will look after ageing or ill relatives. That can no longer be taken for granted. The decline of marriage is also contributing to the collapse in the birth rate. Fertility in East Asia has fallen from 5.3 children per woman in the late 1960s to 1.6 now. In countries with the lowest marriage rates, the fertility rate is nearer 1.0. That is beginning to cause huge demographic problems, as populations age with startling speed. And there are other, less obvious issues. Marriage socialises men: it is associated with lower levels of testosterone and less criminal behaviour. Less marriage might mean more crime.

Can marriage be revived in Asia? Maybe, if expectations of those roles of both sexes change; but shifting traditional attitudes is hard. Governments cannot legislate away popular prejudices. They can, though, encourage change. Relaxing divorce laws might, paradoxically, boost marriage. Women who now steer clear of wedlock might be more willing to tie the knot if they know it can be untied—not just because they can get out of the marriage if it doesn’t work, but also because their freedom to leave might keep their husbands on their toes. Family law should give divorced women a more generous share of the couple’s assets. Governments should also legislate to get employers to offer both maternal and paternal leave, and provide or subsidise child care. If taking on such expenses helped promote family life, it might reduce the burden on the state of looking after the old.

Asian governments have long taken the view that the superiority of their family life was one of their big advantages over the West. That confidence is no longer warranted. They need to wake up to the huge social changes happening in their countries and think about how to cope with the consequences.

Judy
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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by Judy » 2011-12-21 0:45

我刚怀孕的北京女朋友说,“结婚,我为什么要结婚,我有钱,有保姆,有我妈,我为啥要结婚?” 她的姐姐也是我的好朋友,说,“我要是还在北京,我也不结婚,北京太适合单身生活了。”

现在只要不发生战争,受过好教育,有好职业的女孩子都是太有出路了。那些虎妈们,钢琴芭蕾中文数学,这样教育出来的公主们,又美丽又坚强又有才华,结婚生子可能是她们人生to-do上最后一项了。

putaopi
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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by putaopi » 2011-12-21 1:03

大都市都适合单身生活,永远有节目。不过我观察北京很多已婚夫妇社交生活也很活跃,孩子反正有保姆和祖父母代劳,年轻妈妈们都仪态万方,相比之下事事躬亲的美国郊区劳动妇女愈发显得强壮。

tiffany
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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by tiffany » 2011-12-21 6:40

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IF NOT
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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by IF NOT » 2011-12-21 8:07

这个,希望大家不是因为没有出路才结的婚吧 :mrgreen:
这篇是leading,后面的详细报道里说:数据显示,欧美女性,教育程度越高结婚率越高(同居incl.),亚洲正相反。

Jun
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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by Jun » 2011-12-21 9:01

I don't see what the problem is. If these women are happier being UN-married and cannot have a better (emotional or whatever) life in marriage, why bother? If they are happier being married, they would. They are not stupid.
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Judy
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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by Judy » 2011-12-21 11:35

No Marriage No Babies
Marriage rate isn't important, but child birth rate is.

The problem is the flat world needs a consistent resource of labors, including well educated technicians and professionals. Those well-educated Asian women were the best resource of birthmother, but now they didn't want to take the responsibilities to keep up an amazing GDP growth, so economists worried, :)

Jun
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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by Jun » 2011-12-21 11:57

No offense to Judy, but I think Tom Friedman is a dumb fathead. I find Paul Ehrlich a lot more credible ("The Population Bomb").

I have not seen one argument in favor of more people on earth that makes sense.

BTW, people don't need to get married to have children. Still, I do not support having more children.
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tiffany
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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by tiffany » 2011-12-21 12:02

我也不懂这个,不是号称生产力要提高么,提高了不久不需要那么多劳动力了么,不久不需要那么多人了么?
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Judy
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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by Judy » 2011-12-21 12:02

IF NOT wrote:这个,希望大家不是因为没有出路才结的婚吧 :mrgreen:
老实讲,我还真是因为没有出路,没得玩了才结婚的。同年龄阶段的朋友们纷纷结婚生子,慢慢发现和我一起混的圈子年龄越来越小,再后来也就是有点厌了,可不就是吃吃喝喝打打屁,咱们换个花样接着玩,玩煮饭玩孩子玩扮妈妈。

我有个认识了十年的男生,才好玩,十年如一日,爱夜店生活,现在发出来的脸书照片,都是和比他小十岁朋友们的灿烂夜生活,神奇的是他就像Dorian Gray一样都不老,和我们这些昔日的女朋友简直是两个世界。

Judy
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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by Judy » 2011-12-21 12:15

Jun, 看来我反讽的语气掌握得不太好,你看不出来我是支持亚洲妇女们不甘成为高级生育机器,而是选择充分享受她们的生活。

经济学家才不关心亚洲妇女的感情问题,他们要的是持续性的高素质听话的劳工来源。白博,生产力的确是在提高,可是那种压力是永远的,你永远都需要想办法把生产力继续提高,把成本减下去。所以资本家永远都需要聪明的工程师,高级技工。
Last edited by Judy on 2011-12-21 12:24, edited 1 time in total.

笑嘻嘻
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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by 笑嘻嘻 » 2011-12-21 12:21

我看出来了。 :mrgreen:
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Judy
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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by Judy » 2011-12-21 12:25

笑嘻嘻,真是知心人!为了报答你,我给你一个新年菜谱,好吃容易烧!

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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by 笑嘻嘻 » 2011-12-21 12:31

好啊。 :mrgreen:
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dropby
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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by dropby » 2011-12-21 13:10

我一直都鼓吹要人类再生产社会化。 :mrgreen:

那时因为各种养孩子的供应市场很小,自己养孩子的成本会非常高,然后养个孩子来玩就真成了奢侈品了。

另外遥远地回IF NOT说,我是为了分房子结婚的。一说到这种事情,我和大家的代沟就明显了吧?

camellia
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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by camellia » 2011-12-21 13:11

Judy wrote: 我有个认识了十年的男生,才好玩,十年如一日,爱夜店生活,现在发出来的脸书照片,都是和比他小十岁朋友们的灿烂夜生活,神奇的是他就像Dorian Gray一样都不老,和我们这些昔日的女朋友简直是两个世界。
没办法,出来玩的永远是20出头的年轻人,不过只要脸不出卖年纪,谁管呢 :lol: 我现在出去玩90后都一堆堆的了。

IF NOT
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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by IF NOT » 2011-12-21 14:16

臻儿你这种不算,你们早晚会结婚或者同居 :p ,分房只是个timeline。比结婚率亚洲再低也很难低过scandinavian countries,这作者特意强调:亚洲女人是不同居的,不结婚就是真的终生单身,真牛 :super:
文章虽然发表在economist上,倒不完全是着眼于GDP,倒是指出了亚洲女性结婚后负担太重,老人小孩家务工作一人担,(日本已婚男性花在家务上的时间3小时每周,工作女性30小时每周),所以降低了婚姻的吸引力。然后还指出了marry up 等等问题。结尾处讲了性别比例失衡的问题,预测了邮购新娘业务的美好未来。哎,你说笑嘻嘻你老琢磨着startup,怎么没想做个亚洲邮购新娘网站,线上看照片下单,很快就比那什么非诚勿扰更火了。

笑嘻嘻
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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by 笑嘻嘻 » 2011-12-21 14:20

:speechless002:
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豪情
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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by 豪情 » 2011-12-21 14:33

IF NOT wrote:臻儿你这种不算,你们早晚会结婚或者同居 :p ,分房只是个timeline。比结婚率亚洲再低也很难低过scandinavian countries,这作者特意强调:亚洲女人是不同居的,不结婚就是真的终生单身,真牛 :super:
文章虽然发表在economist上,倒不完全是着眼于GDP,倒是指出了亚洲女性结婚后负担太重,老人小孩家务工作一人担,(日本已婚男性花在家务上的时间3小时每周,工作女性30小时每周),所以降低了婚姻的吸引力。然后还指出了marry up 等等问题。结尾处讲了性别比例失衡的问题,预测了邮购新娘业务的美好未来。哎,你说笑嘻嘻你老琢磨着startup,怎么没想做个亚洲邮购新娘网站,线上看照片下单,很快就比那什么非诚勿扰更火了。
终身单身不等于老处女, 不结婚不同居也有性生活. 长期同居尤其是生孩子, 负担和结婚是一样的. 亚洲和西方的区别是不结婚不大会生孩子. 这个主要是法律保障差别吧. 日本的私生子没有继承权, 认养后可以拿半份好象?
日本男生不DATE不结婚的也很多. 不光是女生一方. 邮购新娘也不解决问题.
这种文章是给公共政策看的, 和道德宣传啥都没关系. 要我说, 开放外籍劳工和移民大概是更好的解决办法. 但是长期社会成本很高. 日本太排外了, 所以廉价劳工不足. 中产阶级每家必得一个家庭主妇才能解决问题. 贵为公主, 结婚后都得吸尘擦地.孩子都得亲手带, 就是上学了, 母亲们的竞争更激烈. 说虎妈的, 那是没看到日本妈妈们. 要是劳工问题解决了, 不生就不生呗.
谁道闲情抛掷久?每到春来,惆怅还依旧。

Jun
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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by Jun » 2011-12-21 18:57

这年头女性是否结婚和人口增长率没有紧密的关联。

政府如果想鼓励提高人口增长率,北欧国家的政策照搬过来就可以了,北欧诸国的生育率在过去十年是全欧洲最高的地区(记不清了,反正不是最高也是之一);而生育率最低的是意大利,因为政策不照顾育儿,迫使妇女在生孩子和工作之间二选一。

至于婚不婚,Who cares?结婚除了刺激高价婚礼产业和法律界一小部分的事业(离婚官司),对经济也没啥直接贡献。
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豪情
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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by 豪情 » 2011-12-21 19:09

美国也不照顾, 靠移民.
谁道闲情抛掷久?每到春来,惆怅还依旧。

Jun
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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by Jun » 2011-12-21 19:11

Judy wrote:Jun, 看来我反讽的语气掌握得不太好,你看不出来我是支持亚洲妇女们不甘成为高级生育机器,而是选择充分享受她们的生活。
抱歉我还真没看出来。我觉得相对发达地区的中高收入妇女,受过教育,买得起避孕药,选择生不生孩子,99% 是自己的个人意愿或者亲友压力,为了经济防老(不管是私人意义上的还是公共政策上的)而生孩子是极少数。美国是个例外,原教旨保守派复辟成功,选择权的门槛就得提高到“负担得起去加拿大自费堕胎的妇女”。
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IF NOT
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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by IF NOT » 2011-12-21 20:28

啊对了豪情,我还看到了美国是唯一的没有法定产假的发达国家,要不是你以前说过,我肯定震惊。

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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by 笑嘻嘻 » 2011-12-21 21:38

我反射弧很长地终于说,我没有老惦记着startup啊,我现在养尊处优过得挺舒服地。
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IF NOT
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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by IF NOT » 2011-12-21 21:44

你,你要写游戏言犹在耳哪

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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by 笑嘻嘻 » 2011-12-21 21:46

我没有要写游戏,我是说我去应聘游戏公司里写剧本的职位。。。写故事啊写故事。。。
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tiffany
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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by tiffany » 2011-12-21 22:21

Jun wrote:
Judy wrote:Jun, 看来我反讽的语气掌握得不太好,你看不出来我是支持亚洲妇女们不甘成为高级生育机器,而是选择充分享受她们的生活。
抱歉我还真没看出来。我觉得相对发达地区的中高收入妇女,受过教育,买得起避孕药,选择生不生孩子,99% 是自己的个人意愿或者亲友压力,为了经济防老(不管是私人意义上的还是公共政策上的)而生孩子是极少数。美国是个例外,原教旨保守派复辟成功,选择权的门槛就得提高到“负担得起去加拿大自费堕胎的妇女”。
不过现在在16周之前还是合法堕胎的吧,好像。还给报销,我印象里。
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豪情
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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by 豪情 » 2011-12-21 22:35

JUN大概说的是(如果)原教旨复辟成功.
谁道闲情抛掷久?每到春来,惆怅还依旧。

dropby
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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by dropby » 2011-12-22 1:06

生孩子如果没有亲友压力的话,和买香包一样,完全是感情战胜理智的不合理消费。也和买香包的一样,明明亏大了,还美得不行。 :mrgreen:

所以jun你不用担心,人类灭绝是迟早的事。

Knowing
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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by Knowing » 2011-12-22 4:29

为了经济防老(不管是私人意义上的还是公共政策上的)而生孩子是极少数。
开什么玩笑,现在那还有养儿防老的好事儿!不养孩子把钱攒下来最防老!养一个娃要推迟退休十年!

不明白十年如一日玩同样的东西怎么不会腻。不结婚最大的好处是可以换玩伴换玩法. 不养孩子的好处,就是在三四十岁可以有钱有闲玩二十岁时玩不起,六十岁玩不动的那些东西。不过现在人活的长,一直到五六十岁都可以生活的很active, 如果孩子生的不太晚,从四十岁孩子离家又有时间精力金钱开始玩了。比较可怕的是那种中年男人离婚再结婚跟新老婆又生了新娃的,没完没了的做苦工, 太可怕了!前几天我们8g一个认识的人, 换过一次还不知道是两次年轻老婆,大儿子二十一岁,小儿子二十一个月,中间还有几个娃。大家取笑说,怪不得他工作那么卖力,现在不比以前,大儿子大点就可以送到工厂做工养家。男人们表情都很沉重的说,是啊,这家伙就是在一条没有尽头的隧道里。。。
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Jun
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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by Jun » 2011-12-22 6:10

不明白十年如一日玩同样的东西怎么不会腻。不结婚最大的好处是可以换玩伴换玩法.
结了婚一样可以换玩伴换玩法。

可见我们这一辈的华人在潜意识里都太把一纸婚书当回事儿了。眼下我周围的同龄女和比我更老的,不是“已离婚”的状态就是“已再婚”的状态,即使是“已婚”状态,嫁的也是离婚带儿女的男人。处于(双方都)第一婚且不腻的人实属少数派。
此喵已死,有事烧纸

Knowing
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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by Knowing » 2011-12-22 6:34

没那么方便。。。。
有事找我请发站内消息

tiffany
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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by tiffany » 2011-12-22 8:40

小k你说的真对!把钱攒着最防老,我每次想起来养老就觉得我这辈子是别想退休了。真是,那天看见有人信誓旦旦说人类没有道理一定会老会死。我看了只想以头抢地,真是日子得过得多好啊,才这么舍不得这万丈红尘。

不过话说回来,人类也不会真灭绝。有人是非常喜欢孩子的,每每看人写当妈感言我都觉得我也好意思当妈! :mrgreen:
乡音无改鬓毛衰

IF NOT
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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by IF NOT » 2011-12-22 12:41

真是,那天看见有人信誓旦旦说人类没有道理一定会老会死
我也看到这条新闻了,立刻想到如果人类平均寿命到100多岁的话,离婚,甚至是离好几次婚,肯定就普遍了,到时候伦理架构肯定不得不变,没准人类就真的普遍不结婚了。

笑嘻嘻
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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by 笑嘻嘻 » 2011-12-22 12:55

2000 年之后,还是有人跟随始皇帝去求仙丹啊。 :mrgreen:
Last edited by 笑嘻嘻 on 2011-12-22 13:30, edited 1 time in total.
云浆未饮结成冰

豪情
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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by 豪情 » 2011-12-22 12:57

西方国家不结婚或者离婚好几次的很普遍啊. 美国50%成年人处于单身状态. 不用等到人类寿命100多.
其实人类灭绝不灭绝也无所谓, 但是大家老了希望社会还有劳动力, 否则就是攒了钱也没有用. 目前美国和中国没这问题. 某些国家还是满危险的.
我今年刚去过养老院. 条件还算不错的. 基本就呆在自己的房间里面, 有人来照顾他们. 已经不能开车了, 但是每天有车带他们出去转一下. 自己的孩子定时来看望. 偶尔也有年轻一点的朋友来. 工作人员清一色移民.
Last edited by 豪情 on 2011-12-22 14:24, edited 1 time in total.
谁道闲情抛掷久?每到春来,惆怅还依旧。

dropby
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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by dropby » 2011-12-22 14:22

我很中年妇女地说,到了我这把年纪,尤其是到了我这把年纪还有两个吃奶的娃儿,就会觉得守着老公孩子热炕头非常地岁月静好,现世安稳,一点都不羡慕外面的花花世界。我觉得我会非常世俗地和某人一起养孩子,一起慢慢变老,然后最好我先死。不过我母亲家有非常长寿的基因,我外婆明年就一百岁了,所以最后这一条我没法控制。

不过我对结婚这件事倒真是一直无所谓。我们是未婚同居,因为那时候还没到晚婚年龄。然后到了年龄马上结婚排房子。在结婚这件事情上没有任何浪漫因素,完全是现实考虑。到现在我一样觉得结婚和在一起过一辈子没有半毛钱的关系。

tiffany
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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by tiffany » 2011-12-22 14:28

我高山仰止一下儿。
乡音无改鬓毛衰

豪情
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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by 豪情 » 2011-12-22 14:29

我一点也不担心太长寿的问题. WHO统计说中国70年代出生的, 预期寿命是65. 我们家也根本没有长寿基因. 日本人需要稍微操心些. 我觉得这篇文章主要是指日本台湾新加坡之类. 中国印度泰国之类基本还没有这个问题.
谁道闲情抛掷久?每到春来,惆怅还依旧。

豪情
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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by 豪情 » 2011-12-22 14:38

以前大家讨论过看流行小白文小说代入, 我认真想了想, 我要代入啥呢, 我要代入重生! 趋利避害! 认真想了半天, 发现不投入不吃亏不受伤害, 也不会有体验, 最后恨不得拍自己一下, 真是有病, 还想再来一次啊. 所以人到了不同阶段, 想法就会变, 最后也许就只想着息劳归主了.
谁道闲情抛掷久?每到春来,惆怅还依旧。

dropby
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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by dropby » 2011-12-22 14:40

70年代出生的预期寿命65算短还是长啊?

我觉得发达国家已经普遍有这个问题了吧?中国好像也快进入老龄社会了。中国因为独生子女政策,好像将来劳动力也会紧缺的。

豪情
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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by 豪情 » 2011-12-22 14:45

等我们同龄人老了应该还没问题, 中国出生率现在还接近2. 而且城市化工业化的人口大迁移还在进行中. 城市是不会缺劳动力的, 落后地区和农村就现在已经老龄化了.
至于将来, 谁在乎.
65岁算长还是短, 看你怎么想了. 我觉得不算太长寿.
谁道闲情抛掷久?每到春来,惆怅还依旧。

dropby
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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by dropby » 2011-12-22 14:51

65当然不长寿,但这是平均预期寿命啊,已经包括了早夭的了,所以其实普通人应该远大于这个年纪。

我问算长算短是不知道和60后80后比较怎么样?和其他国家比又怎么样?

豪情
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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by 豪情 » 2011-12-22 14:58

先是从养儿防老进而到社会防老, 但是社会出生率下降, 社会保险防老就崩溃了. 社会防老再变为自己存钱防老. 但是如果社会经济不发展, 没有GDP上升, 大家存的钱的投资哪里来回报呢, 美国这些年股市不行, 一部分原因也是BABY BOOMMER开始变现退休而接盘的人少. 最后就算人口下降GDP也能上升(生产力上升, 工作时间变长), 也要有劳动力来提供服务. 人口下降得太厉害, 劳动力价值上升, 相对而言养老金就大幅度贬值了. 所以 我们为了自己个人利益, 也需要社会有源源不断的受了良好教育的劳动力供应. 公共政策上肯定需要有这些方面的考虑. 至于怎么做, 这篇文章东拉西扯的, 漏洞还是满多的.
日本预期寿命应该是世界最高的吧, 80?
谁道闲情抛掷久?每到春来,惆怅还依旧。

豪情
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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by 豪情 » 2011-12-22 15:01

dropby wrote:65当然不长寿,但这是平均预期寿命啊,已经包括了早夭的了,所以其实普通人应该远大于这个年纪。
根据我有限的统计知识, 我的理解是预期寿命(life expectancy)不是平均寿命.没早夭的人寿命平均会长点, 但是落在每个人身上预期寿命还是不变.
当然是生得越晚预期寿命越长了.http://www.google.com/publicdata/explor ... l=en&dl=en
自己去看吧. 70年是62.99, 80年是66.99.
又, 有这么多不同的个人选择, 社会应该算是进步了. 不过很多国家的公共政策非常驼鸟, 比如说美国和日本. 在大型专业刊物上发这些文章, 也许还没有在大众传媒上改变的效果好. 所以发到ECONOMIST还是有意义的. :mrgreen:
谁道闲情抛掷久?每到春来,惆怅还依旧。

IF NOT
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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by IF NOT » 2011-12-23 0:09

中国人口老龄化高峰是 2030-2050年,正好在我们退休时 :( 40%-50%人口是老年人!
50%不算普遍吧,我心想的是类似德国那样,结了婚的到处跟人解释:我们是为了省税,真的不是为了结婚 :mrgreen:

豪情
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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by 豪情 » 2011-12-23 0:31

为啥? 结婚很丢人? 我只听说在德国生孩子很丢人, 不酷. 德国还反移民. 所以咬牙也得把欧盟撑住.
一半一半不是很好嘛. 多元化共存. 美国结婚可不省税,很可能还要多交税. GAY不是还哭着喊着要结婚嘛. 不过我觉得就是个争取平等的姿态, 其实没多少真想结婚的.
中国解决老龄化的最便捷方法就是老年人的定义和国际接轨. 65-70作为退休年龄. 我不相信这样一改中国到我们退休还是老龄社会. 按照预期寿命的统计,只有不到一半人能活到新退休年龄.
谁道闲情抛掷久?每到春来,惆怅还依旧。

dropby
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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by dropby » 2011-12-23 11:13

Life expectancy
The average number of years a newborn is expected to live with current mortality patterns remaining the same.

从小情的连接过去,是这么解释的,所以我理解还是平均的,婴幼儿早夭率高会拉低预期寿命很多。因此对个人会活多久没太大的指导意义。生得越晚寿命越长主要是因为医疗水平越发达吧?比如爱滋病已经不是不治之症了。

参观老房子总会有说明当时的预期寿命只有二三十岁,听起来十分惊悚。我一看中国60年生人预期寿命才43岁而已啊,相比之下一两百年前二三十岁也很正常了。

虽然我也不想当老不死,但是如果我自己的预期寿命还不到60的话,会非常地悲催。欢欢乐乐都还没成年呢。如果我像外婆那么高寿,说不定可以看到欢乐当爸妈。不过现在我并不想活那么久。我觉得活个七八十也就差不多了。真老了以后会怎么想就难说了。

德国人的确不爱结婚。可能觉得结婚与否没啥意义?某人的好朋友当年本来要奉子成婚,后来孩子掉了婚礼也就取消了。但是他们两个其实感情非常好,一直住在一起,就是觉得结婚没必要吧?他们在一起也有小二十年了,现在也是有一子一女,和欢乐差不多大,生孩子也算非常非常晚了。女儿有唐氏症多半和晚育有关。我都不知道他们究竟结婚没有?反正没收到过通知。

那么结婚究竟有啥意义呢?我困惑地问。欢欢将来最好别结婚算了,我所有的预算里都没有准备给她办婚礼的钱。我希望她多多享受恋爱的甜蜜和性的美好,然后准备好了的时候生个娃儿给我玩儿,把婚礼跳过去算了。 :mrgreen:

IF NOT
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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by IF NOT » 2011-12-23 12:02

臻儿真是太可爱了 :-D 当年你们一定很前卫。(或者是我们后来这些学生越来越保守?)
我认识的德国人里有若干对都是几十年同居也不结婚,有一对40多岁了不知为什么忽然又结了,请朋友们吃了一顿,结果就是每个人都去问:你们为什么要结婚?是要生孩子了吧?他们只好一个个解释:不是,真不是要生孩子;我们也不知道为什么,就是想结了而已。女主人反而说:我原来以为自己再不会结婚了,20几岁结过一次以后,我就觉得这事真没意义,真没意义。她那种有点迷惑有点惆怅的口气我到现在还记得。

dropby
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Re: Asian Lonely Heart ( from Economist Aug Edition)

Post by dropby » 2011-12-23 12:17

我是被资本主义自由化思潮毒害的一代? :mrgreen:

年纪大了记性不好,我突然想起来他们结婚了的。我们那时候已经在加拿大了,收到请帖当然去不了,寄了一张百子图的桌布作为礼物。

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