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火星狗
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Post by 火星狗 » 2008-06-11 12:14

阴险的说,或者像台湾那样义务兵制,肯定能培养一大批和平主义死忠Male。

Jun
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Post by Jun » 2008-06-11 12:26

哪有保家卫国那么简单?中国的历史相对 homogenous,没有过典型的殖民地经历,也没有被外人挑拨着打内战的经历。想象一下,把数目相似的一群中国男人和一群日本男人放到一个荒岛上,然后外面不停地送武器进去,时不时地扶植一方或者另一方上台屠杀对方。没几年就会变成self-fueling fire,都不需要外界灌油。

美国不能撤,那些油井油田,好不容易抢到手,一撤还不都留给Shiite majority?(Isn't democracy great?) 上台肯定都是亲伊朗叙利亚的。万一都学委内瑞拉的样儿,Exxon, Texaco, Halliburton 吃什么?你以为他们会听任小样儿撤退制定有损自己利益的中东政策?沙特也不干哪,王子王叔的跟咱德州大亨们都是亲亲热热一家人,门路广着呢。
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putaopi
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Post by putaopi » 2008-06-11 12:45

Jun wrote:万一都学委内瑞拉的样儿,Exxon, Texaco, Halliburton 吃什么?你以为他们会听任小样儿撤退制定有损自己利益的中东政策?沙特也不干哪,王子王叔的跟咱德州大亨们都是亲亲热热一家人,门路广着呢。
这么说,Obama真的硬撤军的话,有可能会遇刺 :roll:

不过,我不care他的死活,天天他们在伊拉克放焰火,烧的都是我们的TAX Money,都是从教育上扣钱,亏孩子们的。

Knowing
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Post by Knowing » 2008-06-11 13:04

没事,OBAMA不干什么也有可能会遇刺。关键保护好就行了。我很有信心的说。当然副总统也得挑的好。比如布什,一看接班人是切尼就没人暗杀他了。
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Jun
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Post by Jun » 2008-06-11 13:05

In my very outsider, nonexpert opinion, assassination is a relatively inefficient method to achieve a political purpose.
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火星狗
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Post by 火星狗 » 2008-06-11 13:12

虽然我不喜欢帅哥,不过如果为这种鸡毛鸭血的愚蠢原因挂掉也实在是太悲惨了。一定得选个能继承帅哥遗志的副总统!

如果这种事情真的发生了,除了阴谋论之外,最可能的动机不就是不理智的狂热份子个人?

其实我觉得lose some money and get out也不坏,现在还想全身而退嘛?

tiffany
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Post by tiffany » 2008-06-11 13:20

别逗了,不可能退出来的。那么多本钱下进去了,为的不就是控制中东,怎么可能就撤了。
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Jun
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Post by Jun » 2008-06-11 13:25

其实我觉得lose some money and get out也不坏,现在还想全身而退嘛?
Whoa, dude, 这位同学可真纯洁哪。Exxon 他们为啥要"全身而退"?现在出人出钱的都是美国纳税人,死的都是当地人,他们正在140块一桶的石油市场上赚得不亦乐乎呢。四块多一加仑的汽油,两头儿刮你。
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火星狗
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Post by 火星狗 » 2008-06-11 13:33

坏人当然不会主动提议撤军的。我是在想帅哥为什么提议撤军呢?以前大家以为是幼稚没经验,但是也许是某种快刀斩乱麻的策略?继续呆下去,You don't know what you will get, probably lose more. 有没有人非常严肃的分析过撤军的利弊?现在都是被disadvantage给吓的不敢动弹。

Jun
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Post by Jun » 2008-06-12 13:40

Interesting video on Washington Post Web site presented by the deadpan Dana Milbank:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 8061201051

If you have any doubt about what our beloved VP shoots up in his vein every day, this video should reassure you.
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Knowing
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Post by Knowing » 2008-06-12 13:56

我要实话实说JUN 又不爱听了。副总统说的也是个办法,要是允许石油公司在本土随便钻油,美国还是很有储量的,不至于被外国控制价格。你们又舍不得污染自己的环境。。。
美国石油公司日子也不好过。现在石油国家都阔了,不需要靠外国公司的首期投入来开发,不等钱用,谁怕你们嚷嚷。石油国家还生你们的气呢,知道我们手里美元多还拼命贬值美元,简直是变相抢劫。
其实我暗地里觉得汽油四块钱挺好的,美国人终于开始改变生活方式了,市场经济万岁!
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tiffany
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Post by tiffany » 2008-06-12 13:58

老子就暗暗垂泪,油都这个价钱了,老子才开始不得不开车!
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火星狗
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Post by 火星狗 » 2008-06-12 14:00

我走路上班,跟我没关系,别扁我啊。 :preston_collar:

不过我在等下一波通胀呢,那Walmat长途运来的肉蔬菜啥的好像有点想涨……

Knowing
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Post by Knowing » 2008-06-12 14:01

我这种到那儿都腿着的就幸灾乐祸:叫你丫们选布什!
蔬菜鸡蛋涨价我也不怕,下半年的菜我都在年初就付了钱. 道德上先进的生活方式终于在经济上也得到了回报。Yeah! :dog001: :dog001:
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火星狗
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Post by 火星狗 » 2008-06-12 14:06

This is soooooo New York! 蔬菜期货!
我们这落后地儿就只能屯在屋里,以空间换时间,哭了……

tiffany
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Post by tiffany » 2008-06-12 14:33

Knowing wrote:我这种到那儿都腿着的就幸灾乐祸:叫你丫们选布什!
蔬菜鸡蛋涨价我也不怕,下半年的菜我都在年初就付了钱. 道德上先进的生活方式终于在经济上也得到了回报。Yeah! :dog001: :dog001:
我没选他!他是被强加到我脑袋上的!
嘻嘻,因为油价飚升,送货上门服务成本剧增......
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Knowing
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Post by Knowing » 2008-06-12 14:35

CSA 是得自带布口袋去领菜的。。。其实我很想让他们送上门但是没这个OPTION。 :mrgreen:
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豪情
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Post by 豪情 » 2008-06-12 16:05

我今天遇到个每天开150MILE的, 自我感觉没那么坏了. 不过人家作为合同工,车油费都是报税的.

tiffany
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Post by tiffany » 2008-06-13 9:05

恩,小k只要你不是步行去菜地领菜,都有运输问题,遂都有燃料问题。
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wuliaotou
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Post by wuliaotou » 2008-06-13 9:44

他那150M每天路上的时间算不算钱啊?我特别佩服那些开长途上班的人,简直变相自己减工资

karen
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Post by karen » 2008-06-13 10:30

我觉得食物涨价的impact没那么大。 那天纽约时报说美国人平均每年扔掉27%的食物, 物价涨也就涨个几个%, 少买少浪费就好了。 我十分同意小K说的,涨油价其实是好事儿, 这时唯一能逼着美国人改变生活方式的办法。
Image

putaopi
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Post by putaopi » 2008-06-13 11:16

Knowing wrote:CSA 是得自带布口袋去领菜的。。。其实我很想让他们送上门但是没这个OPTION。 :mrgreen:
北加的CSA是送货上门的,但不是exactly到家门口。是分片儿送到一个集中地点,大家再去拿。我们家附近最近开了个organic farm, 就在住宅区的中间,原来是属于本地学区的一块儿空地,一直都有开发商打主意。最后市民委员会决定租给农场,我们真可以腿儿着去买菜了。

油价上涨对我们家的生活影响不大,因为我们住的地方上班上幼儿园买东西都很方便。不过,眼见着骑车上班的人多起来了。

qinger
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Post by qinger » 2008-06-13 11:30

我倒想骑车上班, 可太不安全了。
不过我的车只上班下班, 每个月加一缸油, 还能忍受。我有朋友上下班各开一个钟头, 影响比较大。
我也跟小k有同样的想法, 油价涨就涨吧, 也许可以逼着美国人改变生活方式, 至少住郊区上班的人得想办法carpool。
就是物价嗖嗖地涨, 有点肉痛。在N久没去过walmart后前天去了walmart, 无意中发现那种小瓶的蔬菜油3年前2块多一瓶, 现在4块了。涨幅超过50%。
说个好笑的, 某人同事烧包地买了奔驰SUV, 一加仑才跑12mile, 现在油价一涨, 他痛苦地想卖掉, 不好卖。
putaopi wrote:
Knowing wrote:CSA 是得自带布口袋去领菜的。。。其实我很想让他们送上门但是没这个OPTION。 :mrgreen:
北加的CSA是送货上门的,但不是exactly到家门口。是分片儿送到一个集中地点,大家再去拿。我们家附近最近开了个organic farm, 就在住宅区的中间,原来是属于本地学区的一块儿空地,一直都有开发商打主意。最后市民委员会决定租给农场,我们真可以腿儿着去买菜了。

油价上涨对我们家的生活影响不大,因为我们住的地方上班上幼儿园买东西都很方便。不过,眼见着骑车上班的人多起来了。
现在偶是胡军的扇子。

dropby
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Post by dropby » 2008-06-13 11:31

karen wrote:我觉得食物涨价的impact没那么大。 那天纽约时报说美国人平均每年扔掉27%的食物, 物价涨也就涨个几个%, 少买少浪费就好了。 我十分同意小K说的,涨油价其实是好事儿, 这时唯一能逼着美国人改变生活方式的办法。
是,我就有过度买食品的习惯,哪个月不得扔掉一堆。食物涨价正好逼着我不要把冰箱塞那么满, 尽量吃新鲜的. 冰箱里空一点, 少吃一点也有助于别长那么胖.

Jun
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Post by Jun » 2008-06-14 7:42

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/stor ... d=91479424
Comparing Tax Policies

McCain:

* All households would receive some type of tax break under McCain, with the biggest breaks going to the top 1 percent of wealthy households. For instance, households earning $3 million a year would get, on average, a tax break of close to $270,000.
* Taxpayers making between $160,000 and $225,000 would get a $4,400 tax break on average.
* Families making less than $20,000 would get about a $19 break.

Obama:

* All households, except those in the top 5 percent of the income scale, would benefit from Obama's tax cuts.
* Taxpayers earning between $160,000 and $225,000 a year would, on average, see their taxes reduced their taxes by $2,800.
* Households making less than $20,000 would, on average, get a $570 break.

Source: Tax Policy Center
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karen
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Post by karen » 2008-06-15 11:57

What is the rationale of McCain giving the top 1% the largest tax break? :roll: We all know that's what Republicans do, but what is his spin?
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Jun
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Post by Jun » 2008-06-15 14:33

大概说法是富人交很多很多的税,总数交得比穷人多,所以应该得到减免。

下面是Freakonomics 的blog 上面看来的,作者是不被我待见的Justin Wolfers。

(出处:http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2 ... air-share/
So that got me to thinking about how fair the tax system really is. Do the well-off pay their fair share, or do they also deserve a tax break?

Well, let’s start with the ultra-rich. Bajillionaire Warren Buffett has argued that he isn’t being asked to pay his share. He went around his office, asking people what share of their income they pay in income taxes. Buffett’s 17.7 percent tax rate compared a bit too favorably with the 30 percent tax rate paid by his secretary.

So it appears that the tax system favors the super-rich over working stiffs.

And Buffett went a step further, putting his money where his mouth is. Last November he issued a challenge to his fellow billionaires:

I’ll bet a million dollars against any member of the Forbes 400 who challenges me that the average (federal tax rate including income and payroll taxes) for the Forbes 400 will be less than the average of their receptionists.

So far, no-one has taken him up on this bet.

What about those of us who are merely among the well-off, and not in the Buffett-stratosphere?

Now, I’m no Warren Buffett (believe me!), but I’ve just finished figuring out my federal taxes for the year. I live comfortably (one of the virtues of teaching in a business school), but was dismayed to learn that my federal taxes for 2007 amount to only 16 percent of my income.

This strikes me as astonishingly low. And it’s not like I have a fancy approach to tax minimization; I just write off a bunch of business-related expenses, and benefit enormously from deductions for mortgage interest and charitable giving. Obviously city and state taxes drive my total tax bill up a bit further, as do payroll taxes, although I plan on getting some of that back as social security in my old age.

But the point remains: I had never quite realized that the Warren Buffett problem extends far enough down the income distribution that even folks like myself aren’t paying their fair share.

So I repeated Warren Buffett’s experiment here at Wharton. And it appears that I’m paying lower taxes than the administrative staff in my department. And if it is true here, I suspect the same goes equally for most folks in the top 10 percent of income earners. (Incidentally, according to Piketty and Saez, around half of all income in the U.S. goes to those of us in the top decile ― roughly anyone with a family income of six figures or more.)
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笑嘻嘻
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Post by 笑嘻嘻 » 2008-06-15 14:43

McCain 的退税是按比例退吧?收入高的家庭本来交的税就多,退的也多。Obama 的就是民主党的劫富济贫,反正你收入高,也不差这点儿钱。
现在加州这边特别喜欢讲这两个退税的数字差别。我很不喜欢,太哗众取宠了。本来双收入无孩中产阶级家庭就是税收最高的一群,再高做生意的人能避税的手段太多了,到了这种竞选拉票的时候又用这种绝对数字来抓眼球。尤其是加州是民主党的大本营,更尤其是在加州的生活水准这么高,根本没有几个家庭能够支撑单收入,上班时间去商店基本看不到别的地方很多带孩子的家庭主妇的情景。“$160,000 and $225,000 a year” 这一档在加州根本不能算高收入的少数人,明明是最稳定的打工供房族,在民主党这里仍然成了高收入不用关心的一档。民主党认为得加州选票如探囊取物吗?
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Jun
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Post by Jun » 2008-06-15 15:03

民主党认为得加州选票如探囊取物吗?
是。
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笑嘻嘻
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Post by 笑嘻嘻 » 2008-06-15 15:25

你气我。
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Knowing
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Post by Knowing » 2008-06-15 15:30

I am always so annoyed by all the tax cut talks. I don't care who has to cough up the dough, but a nation can't live beyond its means and a financially responsible government has to balance the budget. If the money has to come from somewhere, it should come from the top 1% or 5%. Because there is simply not enough tax money could come out of bottom 90% who makes under 100k a year. “$160,000 and $225,000 a year” are not rich people in California, but they are rich else where. And if you compare the 2 plans, the difference is only $1600. Frankly, it is not a big deal for the "upper middle class". But fro people making under 20k, $550 is a HUGE deal.
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Jun
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Post by Jun » 2008-06-15 15:54

实际上就是这么回事啦,总有人要吃亏的啦,最有钱的人再怎么吃亏,也不如别人吃亏得厉害啦---差别只是在于是中产阶级还是下层吃亏得厉害。过去二三十年是最下层吃亏最惨,以后不知道。问题是,下层人民数目比较多,过去挤啊挤的(Bill Clinton也是哦),到现在实在挤不出太多油水了。办法或许是把更多的中产阶级扔到下层里继续挤。
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qinger
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Post by qinger » 2008-06-15 21:03

双收入有孩和无孩交税几乎没什么区别。提醒一下。
笑嘻嘻 wrote:McCain 的退税是按比例退吧?收入高的家庭本来交的税就多,退的也多。Obama 的就是民主党的劫富济贫,反正你收入高,也不差这点儿钱。
现在加州这边特别喜欢讲这两个退税的数字差别。我很不喜欢,太哗众取宠了。本来双收入无孩中产阶级家庭就是税收最高的一群,再高做生意的人能避税的手段太多了,到了这种竞选拉票的时候又用这种绝对数字来抓眼球。尤其是加州是民主党的大本营,更尤其是在加州的生活水准这么高,根本没有几个家庭能够支撑单收入,上班时间去商店基本看不到别的地方很多带孩子的家庭主妇的情景。“$160,000 and $225,000 a year” 这一档在加州根本不能算高收入的少数人,明明是最稳定的打工供房族,在民主党这里仍然成了高收入不用关心的一档。民主党认为得加州选票如探囊取物吗?
现在偶是胡军的扇子。

豪情
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Post by 豪情 » 2008-06-15 21:47

在加州双收入中产家庭无论有无孩交一样税. MCCAIN要取消AMT. 那样的话, 大概联邦税会有一点点差别.

我和小K同感, 这些人整天拿减税说事. 拿我们的钱乱花, 退点零头回来, 还要用来推行他们自己的AGENDA. 有人讨论过为什么不能搞统一税率, 答案是政客就没了把我们大家搞的眼花缭乱的法码了.
我们要要求他们说收来的钱倒底能为我们做什么.

Jun
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Post by Jun » 2008-06-15 22:22

2001 以及后来的Bush 减税计划是美国自二战以来最昂贵的三次减税方案之一。

这里面减税的大头好处,落在商业公司和股票市场上(corporate tax cut and capital gain tax cut)。如果仅仅提出给这些个体减税,人民肯定起哄----但对付他们也很简单,给大公司减一百块的税,给富人减五十块,同时给普通人民减一块钱的税,穷人不减。你支持不支持?不同意给商业和股市和富人减税,那你自己也减不下那几块零钱。他们就吃定你了。(现在干脆出18分的汽油税把人买下来,你愿意把自己给卖了吗?)

结果呢?国会里绝大部分人都低头了,01年时候正是经济萧条,打出刺激经济的旗号无往不利,而且无人敢说,我代表我们选区的人民不要这笔短视的钱。当时谁那么胆大站出来反对了?John McCain,他说你这样拿国家的钱喂corporations,喂股市,慷国库之慨,挥霍后代的钱,是不负责任的行为。

这还是在入侵阿富汗和伊拉克之前的事情。此后打仗,派正规军,花几倍价钱雇佣商业部队去打仗,或者让Halliburton给美军提供设备和服务,任凭他们给五角大楼开天价的账单。这些钱都是哪儿来的?要不要听政府派的财政审核员auditors发现多少国防contractors乱收钱的故事?要不要听这些auditors怎样被上面的高层压下去让他们闭嘴的故事?官商勾结,再简单不过了,特别是打仗之中,是发财的大好机会。

我强烈推荐Fresh Air节目今年访问前共和党温和派议员 Lincoln Chaffee 的节目,非常非常fascinating,尤其是他回忆七年前白宫通过减税package 强迫国会就范的手段:

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/stor ... d=89689567

为什么美国在过去八年里没命一样地印钞票?不仅给自己带来长期的经济损害和通胀压力,而且连带害了中国,中东,和日本等收购美元的国家。为什么现在大家都眼睛瞪着横飞的现金和飞涨的commodity,食物,原油,能源,一片惊慌失措?为什么钱不值钱,去欧洲旅行都负担不起?
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Jun
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Post by Jun » 2008-06-17 14:18

Can't say I'm surprised. Isn't it great that political correctness is dead?

http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room/ ... index.html
It seems not everyone in the Republican Party is sticking to the message and helping to portray the party as modern and, well, not racist.

At the Texas Republican Convention this past weekend, the Dallas Morning News' Trail Blazers blog reports, one vendor was selling the pin that appears with this post. (If you can't see the photo, the pin reads, "If Obama is President... will we still call it The White House?")
Image
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火星狗
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Post by 火星狗 » 2008-06-17 14:21

现在是短兵相接,顾不上那么多了。I guess you will see more and more……

Knowing
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Post by Knowing » 2008-06-17 14:35

我就喜欢对方这种赤裸裸特没大脑的攻击 :mrgreen: Go Texas Republican Convention ! 还有,千万别忘了有颜色的拉丁裔和亚裔!再来把"坏天气就象强奸,既然避免不了就干脆放松享受好了"之类的傻话多说几遍就更好了!Make sure Mccain gets every and only old white male vote!
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wuliaotou
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Post by wuliaotou » 2008-06-17 16:03

我同事两儿子,都在这里的Christine 私立学校念书。一7岁一9岁。昨天和他妈妈说,不喜欢 obama, 因为他太黑了,比他们的黑同学还黑 (他们学校亚洲人偏多,有少部分黑人亚洲人混种孩子)。我说啊?他们这么说?但是 obama 他妈妈是白人啊! 我同事大吃一惊,说,啊?看不出啊,他很黑啊...我无语

Jun
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Post by Jun » 2008-06-17 18:24

跟这种人有什么道理可讲。
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Knowing
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Post by Knowing » 2008-06-17 18:30

People are entitled to have stupid opinions. :spamafote: I hope his/her kids don't grow up to be self-hating Asians.

今天mccain 又赞成offshore drilling 了。他真是一天天走上了副总统的贼船啊。。。
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karen
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Post by karen » 2008-06-17 21:51

是啊,我听到后都不敢相信耳朵,他怎么会支持offshore drilling? 明明不解决问题。 还听他对法院允许Guantanomo Bay囚犯在民间法庭上诉表示不满,说这会引起更多美国人死亡。 :(
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Knowing
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Post by Knowing » 2008-06-18 6:30

offshore drilling 一解禁,短期肯定对石油期货市场有影响。不用真解禁就有。你们谁有胆子可以做一把。 :mrgreen: 长期呢,就难说了。恩,吵吵对冲基金操纵市场的人们,现在是刀头见血的时候了!
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Jun
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Post by Jun » 2008-06-18 7:05

Isn't the oil market already on the brink of bursting?
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Knowing
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Post by Knowing » 2008-06-18 7:17

If i knew I would be trading oil now, wouldn't I? :mrgreen:
Nobody knew precisely what was going on. Energy trading has always been very shady business.
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Jun
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Post by Jun » 2008-06-18 7:49

都这样儿了还不算泡沫?过去的泡沫也一个一个到时候都破掉了。
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Knowing
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Post by Knowing » 2008-06-18 8:21

泡沫归泡沫,啥时候破可不一定。 :mrgreen:
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Post by Jun » 2008-06-18 11:00

General Accuses Administration of War Crimes

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... inionsbox1
The two-star general who led an Army investigation into the horrific detainee abuse at Abu Ghraib has accused the Bush administration of war crimes and is calling for accountability.

In his 2004 report on Abu Ghraib, then-Major General Anthony Taguba concluded that "numerous incidents of sadistic, blatant, and wanton criminal abuses were inflicted on several detainees." He called the abuse "systemic and illegal." And, as Seymour M. Hersh reported in the New Yorker, he was rewarded for his honesty by being forced into retirement.

So if war crimes were committed, who's responsible?

In today's installment of a major McClatchy Newspapers series on the U.S. detention system, Tom Lasseter writes: "The framework under which detainees were imprisoned for years without charges at Guantanamo and in many cases abused in Afghanistan wasn't the product of American military policy or the fault of a few rogue soldiers.

"It was largely the work of five White House, Pentagon and Justice Department lawyers who, following the orders of President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney, reinterpreted or tossed out the U.S. and international laws that govern the treatment of prisoners in wartime, according to former U.S. defense and Bush administration officials.
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SmilingFace
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Post by SmilingFace » 2008-06-19 0:04

There are many important role HRC can play. Ted Kennedy lost in 1980 primary but he went on to be the best senator one can be. I hope HRC will do the same. It is time to prove she is a worker, a fighter, and nothing takes her down, including a failed presidential bit.
cant agree more.

HRC once said It did take a Clinton to clean up after the first Bush and I think it might take another one to clean up after the second Bush. :mrgreen:

And she only "suspend" her campaign, that's all.

I do think she is cool. :cat88:
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