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Jun · Post by **Jun** » 2008-10-21 8:47

平均数没用，最后还得看battleground states，electoral college 的票数分布。

Knowing · Post by **Knowing** » 2008-10-21 8:52

听说battleground states形式一片大好，希望不是媒体精英被自己的愿望遮了眼睛。

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/map/polling/index.html

Feerrari · Post by **Feerrari** » 2008-10-21 9:03

Knowing wrote:听说battleground states形式一片大好，希望不是媒体精英被自己的愿望遮了眼睛。

这也是我的隐忧，不到最后一天，总是踏实不下来呢。我是从http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/看到的。相对不靠谱的民调来说，那里更让人相信一些。

我好奇的是加起来将近300万的样本，怎么调查的呢。

Knowing · Post by **Knowing** » 2008-10-21 9:12

you know, I just attend a talk by Nate Silver (founder of www.fivethirtyeight.com) recently. Seems they just tried to adjust polls with past data. I wonder how well it works in this relatively fast changing campaign. Meanwhile, he listed all the flaws in most polling procedures caused error and I felt the 3% or 4% error margin most polls claimed seemed to way lower than it should be.

Feerrari · Post by **Feerrari** » 2008-10-21 9:13

我还看过一个07年底的预言贴，预言希腊里6月退选，Obama一路领先，老头稳扎稳打，10月11月时Obama言论中出现重大错误，败选。
本来神棍的话是可以置之不理的，一个人作两次截然不同的预言总有一次蒙对，但对我这个F1业余爱好者来说，自从见证了舒米最后一赛的爆缸，汉密去年衔17分优势进入最后两站，一站退赛一站鬼使神差的就差KIMI一分，痛失总冠军，最不可能的事情就在眼皮子底下发生，我就什么也不敢肯定了。

Knowing · Post by **Knowing** » 2008-10-21 9:15

I don't take what anyone says serioulsy unless that person is willing to put money on his prediction. Especially strangers on internet.

Jun · Post by **Jun** » 2008-10-21 9:23

预言一毛钱一打，我这儿立刻能拿出半打，不要钱。

Knowing · Post by **Knowing** » 2008-10-21 9:25

//shrug but if you want to hedge against your own disappointment, I suggest intrade.com . The future of John McCain to win 2008 US Presidential Election is trading at 16 at the moment, so if that actually happens, you can make a handsome 84/16 = 525% return on investment. This is not fake money, it is real.

Jun · Post by **Jun** » 2008-10-21 9:28

Is there a place where one can hedge against a war with Iran?

Knowing · Post by **Knowing** » 2008-10-21 9:33

yeah, "USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran by 31 Dec 2008" is trading at 9/12 now, which means if it does happen you will make about 900% profit. They also have other expiration date.

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/cont ... grpID=4428

tiffany · Post by **tiffany** » 2008-10-21 9:35

oh boy, they think of ways to make money on ANYTHING!

Jun · Post by **Jun** » 2008-10-21 9:37

Cool!

豪情 · Post by 豪情 » 2008-10-21 11:01

这不就是最原始的赌盘么? 怎么现在大家都不用高深的数学模型了? 真幻灭啊.

Knowing · Post by **Knowing** » 2008-10-21 11:12

这相当于一个期货市场，比原始的赌盘精密复杂有趣多了。最基本的区别是你不用等开盘，就产生了用数学模型做价格差的余地。比如，你也觉得MCCAIN 会输，但是又觉得OBAMA 去看他奶奶的几天，MCCAIN 有反击余地，价格会上涨，那么就可以在现在的价格买一批MCCAIN 赢的期货，等价格长点再脱手。

豪情 · Post by 豪情 » 2008-10-21 11:21

TRADE越多赌场越挣钱, 真是好设计啊.